ReviewResearch synthesis methods2016
GetReal in mathematical modelling: a review of studies predicting drug effectiveness in the real world.
Review in Research synthesis methods, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Quantitative Evidence Synthesis Methods for the Assessment of the Effectiveness of Treatment Sequences for Clinical and Economic Decision Making: A Review and Taxonomy of Simplifying Assumptions.PharmacoEconomics · 2021Pooled it
- Ten Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19: Use of Rapid Literature Review to Inform Predictive Models During the Pandemic.Frontiers in public healthPooled it
- Patient-specific effects of metformin on the hepatic metabolism in adolescents with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).Journal of molecular medicine (Berlin, Germany) · 2025Article
- Testing the "RCT augmentation" methodology: A trial simulation study to guide the broadening of trials eligibility criteria and inform on effectiveness.Contemporary clinical trials communications · 2023Article
- Thoroughly Calibrated Modular Agent-Based Model of the Human Cardiovascular and Renal Systems for Blood Pressure Regulation in Health and Disease.Frontiers in physiology · 2021Article
- The use of mathematical modeling studies for evidence synthesis and guideline development: A glossary.Research synthesis methods · 2019Article
- The "RCT augmentation": a novel simulation method to add patient heterogeneity into phase III trials.BMC medical research methodology · 2018Article
- A primer on multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- Improving Realism in Clinical Trial Simulations via Real-World Data.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2017Article
- Reflections on the Future of Pharmaceutical Public-Private Partnerships: From Input to Impact.Pharmaceutical research · 2017Review
- GetReal in mathematical modelling: a review of studies predicting drug effectiveness in the real world.Research synthesis methods · 2016Review
- A Novel Mathematical Model of Glaucoma Pathogenesis.Journal of current glaucoma practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The performance of a drug in a clinical trial setting often does not reflect its effect in daily clinical practice. In this third of three reviews, we examine the applications that have been used in the literature to predict real-world effectiveness from randomized controlled trial efficacy data. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE from inception to March 2014, the Cochrane Methodology Register, and websites of key journals and organisations and reference lists. We extracted data on the type of model and predictions, data sources, validation and sensitivity analyses, disease area and software. We identified 12 articles in which four approaches were used: multi-state models, discrete event simulation models, physiology-based models and survival and generalized linear models. Studies predicted outcomes over longer time periods in different patient populations, including patients with lower levels of adherence or persistence to treatment or examined doses not tested in trials. Eight studies included individual patient data. Seven examined cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and three neurological conditions. Most studies included sensitivity analyses, but external validation was performed in only three studies. We conclude that mathematical modelling to predict real-world effectiveness of drug interventions is not widely used at present and not well validated. © 2016 The Authors Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.