Evidence mapPaperPMID 27612145Full record

ArticlePloS one2016

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Viktoria Rücker, Ulrich Keil, Anthony P Fitzgerald, Uwe Malzahn, Christof Prugger, Georg Ertl, Peter U Heuschmann, Hannelore Neuhauser

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Viktoria RückerInstitute of Clinical Epidemiology and Biometry, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
Ulrich KeilInstitute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.
Anthony P FitzgeraldDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Statistics, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
Uwe MalzahnInstitute of Clinical Epidemiology and Biometry, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
Christof PruggerInstitute of Public Health, Charité ‒ Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Georg ErtlDepartment of Medicine I, University Hospital Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
Peter U HeuschmannInstitute of Clinical Epidemiology and Biometry, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
Hannelore NeuhauserDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Universitätsklinikum Würzburg · DEUniversity of Würzburg · DECharité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin · DEGerman Centre for Cardiovascular Research · DEUniversity College Cork · IEUniversity of Münster · DE

Funding

MODELING COARTICULATION: AN INTEGRATED PHONETIC APPROACHR01DC002014 · NIDCD · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AUSTIN · PI SUSSMAN, HARVEY M · 1994 to 2003
$1.1M
NIDCD NIH HHS R01 DC002014
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdultAgedCardiovascular DiseasesFemaleGermanyHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID27612145
PMCPMC5017762
OpenAlexW2509531029

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.