Evidence mapPaperPMID 31030672Full record

Observational studyBMC endocrine disorders2019

Development and validation of a predictive model for incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged Mexican adults: the metabolic syndrome cohort.

Olimpia Arellano-Campos, Donaji V Gómez-Velasco, Omar Yaxmehen Bello-Chavolla, Ivette Cruz-Bautista, Marco A Melgarejo-Hernandez, Liliana Muñoz-Hernandez, Luz E Guillén, Jose de Jesus Garduño-Garcia, Ulices Alvirde, Yukiko Ono-Yoshikawa and 9 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract readObservational StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC endocrine disorders, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07284316 (Effect of a Multidomain Intervention Plus Turmeric on the Prevention of Cognitive Decline in People Over 55 Years of Age With Insulin Resistance), which is not on this map. Cited by 26 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
5.7field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07284316 phase2 / phase3active not recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Effect of a Multidomain Intervention Plus Turmeric on the Prevention of Cognitive Decline in People Over 55 Years of Age With Insulin Resistance: A Randomized Clinical Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorInstituto Mexicano del Seguro SocialRan2025 to 2027Enrolled100ConditionsCognitive Decline, Subjective Cognitive Impairment, Insulin ResistanceArmsTurmeric extract, Control: Placebo. 500mg gelatin in capsules 2 times a day
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 59 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. HOMA-IR as a predictor of Health Outcomes in Patients with Metabolic Risk Factors: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension · 2022
    Pooled it
  4. Article
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  7. Insulin resistance, CaFrontiers in physiology · 2025
    Review
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  12. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.

Olimpia Arellano-CamposUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Donaji V Gómez-VelascoUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Omar Yaxmehen Bello-ChavollaUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Ivette Cruz-BautistaUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Marco A Melgarejo-HernandezDepartamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
Liliana Muñoz-HernandezUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Luz E GuillénDepartamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
Jose de Jesus Garduño-GarciaHospital General Regional No. 251, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mexico City, Mexico.
Ulices AlvirdeUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
Yukiko Ono-YoshikawaCentro Médico Ono Aguascalientes, Mexico City, Mexico.
Ricardo Choza-RomeroCentro Médico Ono Aguascalientes, Mexico City, Mexico.
Leobardo Sauque-ReynaUnidad Metabólica y Cardiovascular, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
Maria Eugenia Garay-SevillaInstituto de Investigaciones Médicas, Universidad de Guanajuato, Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico.
Juan Manuel Malacara-HernandezInstituto de Investigaciones Médicas, Universidad de Guanajuato, Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico.
Maria Teresa Tusie-LunaUnidad de Biología Molecular y Medicina Genómica, Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Mexico City, Mexico.
Luis Miguel Gutierrez-RobledoInstituto Nacional de Geriatria, Mexico City, Mexico.
Francisco J Gómez-PérezDepartamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
Rosalba RojasInstituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
Carlos A Aguilar-SalinasUnidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico. caguilarsalinas@yahoo.com.
Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán · MXUniversidad de Guanajuato · MXUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de México · MXInstituto Nacional de Pediatria · MXInstituto Nacional de Salud Pública · MXMexican Social Security Institute · MX

Funding

Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología S0008-2009-1-115250
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico. Here, we aimed to report incidence rates (IR) of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged apparently-healthy Mexican adults, identify risk factors associated to ID and develop a predictive model for ID in a high-risk population.

methodsProspective 3-year observational cohort, comprised of apparently-healthy adults from urban settings of central Mexico in whom demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data was collected. We evaluated risk factors for ID using Cox proportional hazard regression and developed predictive models for ID.

resultsWe included 7636 participants of whom 6144 completed follow-up. We observed 331 ID cases (IR: 21.9 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 21.37-22.47). Risk factors for ID included family history of diabetes, age, abdominal obesity, waist-height ratio, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), HOMA2-IR and metabolic syndrome. Early-onset ID was also high (IR 14.77 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 14.21-15.35), and risk factors included HOMA-IR and IFG. Our ID predictive model included age, hypertriglyceridemia, IFG, hypertension and abdominal obesity as predictors (D

conclusionsID in apparently healthy middle-aged Mexican adults is currently at an alarming rate. The constructed models can be implemented to predict diabetes risk and represent the largest prospective effort for the study metabolic diseases in Latin-American population.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdultAlgorithmsBiomarkersCase-Control StudiesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleFollow-Up StudiesGlucose IntoleranceHumansMaleMetabolic SyndromeMexicoMiddle AgedPrediabetic StatePredictive Value of TestsBiomarkersDiabetes predictionIncidenceLatinosMéxicoObesityUrbanization

Identifiers

PMID31030672
PMCPMC6486953
OpenAlexW2946074361

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.