ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2019
Effect Estimates in Randomized Trials and Observational Studies: Comparing Apples With Apples.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Signals were broadly positive for months, but never definitive: the tocilizumab story.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Non-genetic risk and protective factors and biomarkers for neurological disorders: a meta-umbrella systematic review of umbrella reviews.BMC medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Comparative effectiveness of extended-release naltrexone versus buprenorphine-naloxone on treatment interruption: Comparing findings from a reanalysis of the X:BOT RCT and harmonized target trial emulation using population-based observational data.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Trial
- Combined Conventional Synthetic Disease Modifying Therapy vs. Infliximab for Rheumatoid Arthritis: Emulating a Randomized Trial in Observational Data.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2022Trial
- Time zero alignment in target trial emulation of VMAT2 inhibitors versus anticholinergics for tardive dyskinesia.Psychiatry and clinical neurosciences · 2026Article
- Machine learning versus logistic regression for propensity score estimation: a trial emulation benchmarked against the PARADIGM-HF randomized trial.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- The Ideal Trial: Defining Causal Estimands that Balance Relevance and Feasibility in Target Trial Emulations and Actual Randomized Trials.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2026Review
- Endocrine therapies and mortality risk in postmenopausal women with breast cancer: benchmarking an observational analysis against a randomized trial.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Observational
- Concomitant Psychotropic Medication Is Associated with Reduced Outcomes of Trauma-Focused Psychotherapy for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder.Psychotherapy and psychosomatics · 2025Article
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- Trastuzumab in early curative breast cancer: A target trial emulation benchmarked against two randomized clinical trials.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Methodologies for the Emulation of Biomarker-Guided Trials Using Observational Data: A Systematic Review.Journal of personalized medicine · 2025Review
- Impact of quitline services on tobacco cessation: an application of modern epidemiologic methods.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Observational
- Management of high-risk acute pulmonary embolism: an emulated target trial analysis.Intensive care medicine · 2025Observational
- Cardiorenal effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers among people underrepresented in trials: analysis of routinely collected data with emulation of a reference trial (ONTARGET).American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Examining the Effect of Missing Data and Unmeasured Confounding on External Comparator Studies: Case Studies and Simulations.Drug safety · 2024Article
- Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Prostate Cancer Mortality: An Emulation of Target Trials in US Medicare.JCO clinical cancer informatics · 2024Article
- Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis in the SWEDEHEART registry against the REDUCE-AMI randomized trial.European journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Post-hospitalization remote monitoring for patients with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in an accountable care organization.BMC health services research · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
31 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies might not be directly comparable because of differences in study design, other than randomization, and in data analysis. We propose a 3-step procedure to facilitate meaningful comparisons of effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies: 1) harmonization of the study protocols (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, outcome, start and end of follow-up, causal contrast) so that the studies target the same causal effect, 2) harmonization of the data analysis to estimate the causal effect, and 3) sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of discrepancies that could not be accounted for in the harmonization process. To illustrate our approach, we compared estimates of the effect of immediate with deferred initiation of antiretroviral therapy in individuals positive for the human immunodeficiency virus from the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy (START) randomized trial and the observational HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration.
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What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.