ArticleAnnals of transplantation2019
Prediction of Three-Year Mortality After Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation in Adults with Pre-Transplant Donor and Recipient Variables.
Article in Annals of transplantation, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Prediction Model for Risk of Death in Kidney Transplant Recipients.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- An In-depth overview of artificial intelligence (AI) tool utilization across diverse phases of organ transplantation.Journal of translational medicine · 2025Review
- Prediction of Renal Graft Function 1 Year After Adult Deceased-Donor Kidney Transplantation Using Variables Available Prior to Transplantation.Annals of transplantation · 2024Article
- The promise of machine learning applications in solid organ transplantation.NPJ digital medicine · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prognostic models for 3-year mortality after kidney transplantation based on pre-transplant donor and recipient variables may avoid futility and thus improve donor organ allocation. MATERIAL AND METHODS There were 1546 consecutive deceased-donor kidney transplants in adults (January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2012) used to identify pre-transplant donor and recipient variables with significant independent influence on long-term survival (Cox regression modelling). Detected factors were used to develop a prognostic model for 3-year mortality in 1289 patients with follow-up of >3 years (multivariable logistic regression). The sensitivity and specificity of this model's prognostic ability was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Highly immunized recipients [hazard ratio (HR: 2.579, 95% CI: 1.272-4.631], high urgency recipients (HR: 3.062, 95% CI: 1.294-6.082), recipients with diabetic nephropathy (HR: 3.471, 95% CI: 2.476-4.751), as well as 0, 1, or 2 HLA DR mismatches (HR: 1.349, 95% CI: 1.160-1.569) were independent and significant risk factors for patient survival. Younger recipient age ≤42.1 years (HR: 0.137, 95% CI: 0.090-0.203), recipient age 42.2-52.8 years (HR: 0.374, 95% CI: 0.278-0.498), recipient age 52.9-62.8 years (HR: 0.553, 95% CI: 0.421-0.723), short cold ischemic times ≤11.8 hours (HR: 0.602, 95% CI: 0.438-0.814) and cold ischemic times 11.9-15.3 hours (HR: 0.736, 95% CI: 0.557-0.962) reduced this risk independently and significantly. The AUROC of the derived model for 3-year post-transplant mortality with these variables was 0.748 (95% CI: 0.689-0.788). CONCLUSIONS Older, highly immunized or high urgency transplant candidates with anticipated longer cold ischemic times, who were transplanted with the indication of diabetic nephropathy should receive donor organs with no HLA DR mismatches to improve their mortality risk.
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