Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31242690›Full record

SynthesisNutrients2019

Dietary Glycemic Index and Load and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Assessment of Causal Relations.

Geoffrey Livesey, Richard Taylor, Helen F Livesey, Anette E Buyken, David J A Jenkins, Livia S A Augustin, John L Sievenpiper, Alan W Barclay, Simin Liu, Thomas M S Wolever and 15 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Nutrients, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06818032 (Acute Avocado Consumption on Postprandial Glycemic and Appetite/Satiety Responses), which is not on this map. Cited by 78 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
78citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
12.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06818032 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Acute Avocado Consumption on Postprandial Glycemic and Appetite/Satiety Responses

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of Vermont Medical CenterRan2025 to 2026Enrolled30ConditionsHealthy, Healthy Volunteer, Healthy Volunteers, Healthy AdultArmsNegative control, Avocado, Fat and fiber addition
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

78 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 156 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Trial
  8. Trial
  9. Trial
  10. Trial
  11. Trial
  12. Trial
  13. Trial
  14. Trial
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. The Effect ofInternational journal of food science · 2026
    Review
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Review

18 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors at 14 institutions in 10 countries.

Geoffrey LiveseyIndependent Nutrition Logic Ltd, 21 Bellrope Lane, Wymondham NR180QX, UK. glivesey@inlogic.co.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-0430-5365
Richard TaylorIndependent Nutrition Logic Ltd, 21 Bellrope Lane, Wymondham NR180QX, UK. richard.mi.taylor1@gmail.com.
Helen F LiveseyIndependent Nutrition Logic Ltd, 21 Bellrope Lane, Wymondham NR180QX, UK. helenlivesey@inlogic.co.uk.
Anette E BuykenInstitute of Nutrition, Consumption and Health, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Paderborn University, 33098 Paderborn, Germany. anette.buyken@uni-paderborn.de.
David J A JenkinsDepartments of Nutritional Science and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8, Canada. david.jenkins@utoronto.ca.
Livia S A AugustinClinical Nutrition and Risk Factor Modification Centre, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON M5C 2T2, Canada. livia.augustin@utoronto.ca.
John L SievenpiperDepartments of Nutritional Science and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8, Canada. john.sievenpiper@alumni.utoronto.ca.
Alan W BarclayGlycemic Index Foundation, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, Sydney NSW 2037, Australia. alanb@gifoundation.org.au.
Simin LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA. simin_liu@brown.edu.
Thomas M S WoleverDepartments of Nutritional Science and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8, Canada. thomas.wolever@utoronto.ca.
Walter C WillettDepartments of Nutrition and Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA. wwillett@hsph.harvard.edu.
Furio BrighentiDepartment of Food and Drug, University of Parma, 43120 Parma, Italy. furio.brighenti@unipr.it.ORCID 0000-0001-8441-4611
Jordi Salas-SalvadóHuman Nutrition Unit, Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Institut d'Investigació Sanitària Pere Virgili (IISPV), Rovira i Virgili University, 43201 Reus, Spain. jordi.salas@urv.cat.ORCID 0000-0003-2700-7459
Inger BjörckRetired from Food for Health Science Centre, Antidiabetic Food Centre, Lund University, S-221 00 Lund, Sweden. inger@innovafood.se.
Salwa W RizkallaInstitute of Cardiometabolism and Nutrition, ICAN, Pitié Salpêtrière Hospital, F75013 Paris, France. salwa.rizkalla3@gmail.com.
Gabriele RiccardiDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University, 80147 Naples, Italy. riccardi@unina.it.
Carlo La VecchiaDepartment of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, 201330 Milan, Italy. carlo.lavecchia@unimi.it.ORCID 0000-0003-1441-897X
Antonio CerielloIRCCS MultiMedica, Diabetes Department, Sesto San Giovanni, 20099 Milan, Italy. ACERIELL@clinic.cat.
Antonia TrichopoulouHellenic Health Foundation, Alexandroupoleos 23, 11527 Athens, Greece. atrichopoulou@hhf-greece.gr.
Andrea PoliNutrition Foundation of Italy, Viale Tunisia 38, I-20124 Milan, Italy. poli@nutrition-foundation.it.
Arne AstrupDepartment of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS) Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, 2200 Copenhagen, Denmark. ast@nexs.ku.dk.ORCID 0000-0001-8968-8996
Cyril W C KendallDepartments of Nutritional Science and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8, Canada. cyril.kendall@utoronto.ca.
Marie-Ann HaSpinney Nutrition, Shirwell, Barnstaple, Devon EX31 4JR, UK. nutrition@thespinney.co.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-2520-6892
Sara Baer-SinnottOldways, Boston, MA 02116, USA. sara@oldwayspt.org.
Jennie C Brand-MillerCharles Perkins Centre and School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia. jennie.brandmiller@sydney.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0002-6797-8754
St. Michael's Hospital · CABrown University · USFederico II University Hospital · ITHarvard University · USHellenic Health Foundation · GRInstituto de Salud Carlos III · ESLund University · SEMultiMedica · ITPaderborn University · DESorbonne Université · FRThe University of Sydney · AUUniversity of Copenhagen · DKUniversity of Milan · ITUniversity of Parma · IT

Funding

Beneo Institute 00000undefined <span style="color:gray;font-size:10px;">undefined</span> 00000
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While dietary factors are important modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D), the causal role of carbohydrate quality in nutrition remains controversial. Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) have been examined in relation to the risk of T2D in multiple prospective cohort studies. Previous meta-analyses indicate significant relations but consideration of causality has been minimal. Here, the results of our recent meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies of 4 to 26-y follow-up are interpreted in the context of the nine Bradford-Hill criteria for causality, that is: (1) Strength of Association, (2) Consistency, (3) Specificity, (4) Temporality, (5) Biological Gradient, (6) Plausibility, (7) Experimental evidence, (8) Analogy, and (9) Coherence. These criteria necessitated referral to a body of literature wider than prospective cohort studies alone, especially in criteria 6 to 9. In this analysis, all nine of the Hill's criteria were met for GI and GL indicating that we can be confident of a role for GI and GL as causal factors contributing to incident T2D. In addition, neither dietary fiber nor cereal fiber nor wholegrain were found to be reliable or effective surrogate measures of GI or GL. Finally, our cost-benefit analysis suggests food and nutrition advice favors lower GI or GL and would produce significant potential cost savings in national healthcare budgets. The high confidence in causal associations for incident T2D is sufficient to consider inclusion of GI and GL in food and nutrient-based recommendations.

Indexed as

Glycemic IndexGlycemic LoadAnimalsBiomarkersBlood GlucoseDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2DietHumansIncidencePrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsBiomarkersBlood Glucosealcoholcausationcohort studiesdiabetesdietary fiberepidemiologyglycemic indexglycemic loadmeta-analysispublic health

Identifiers

PMID31242690
PMCPMC6628270
OpenAlexW2954882956

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.