Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32219344›Full record

ArticleHuman molecular genetics2020

Polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and subsequent event risk amongst established cases.

Laurence J Howe, Frank Dudbridge, Amand F Schmidt, Chris Finan, Spiros Denaxas, Folkert W Asselbergs, Aroon D Hingorani, Riyaz S Patel

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Human molecular genetics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Polygenic risk scores for cardiovascular disease: clinical utility and limitations.The Egyptian heart journal : (EHJ) : official bulletin of the Egyptian Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Polygenic Risk and Coronary Artery Disease Severity.Circulation. Genomic and precision medicine · 2024
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Genetics of diabetes.World journal of diabetes · 2023
    Review
  12. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Laurence J HoweInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Frank DudbridgeDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK.
Amand F SchmidtInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Chris FinanInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Spiros DenaxasInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Folkert W AsselbergsInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Aroon D HingoraniInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.
Riyaz S PatelInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK.

Funding

British Heart Foundation CH/1996001/9454British Heart Foundation FS/14/76/30933British Heart Foundation PG/18/50/33837Department of HealthMedical Research Council MC_PC_17228Medical Research Council MC_QA137853Medical Research Council MR/K006584/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere is growing evidence that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can identify individuals with elevated lifetime risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether they can also be used to stratify the risk of subsequent events among those surviving a first CAD event remain uncertain, with possible biological differences between CAD onset and progression, and the potential for index event bias.

methodsUsing two baseline subsamples of UK Biobank: prevalent CAD cases (N = 10 287) and individuals without CAD (N = 393 108), we evaluated associations between a CAD PRS and incident cardiovascular and fatal outcomes.

resultsA 1 SD higher PRS was associated with an increased risk of incident myocardial infarction (MI) in participants without CAD (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.29, 1.38), but the effect estimate was markedly attenuated in those with prevalent CAD (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.06, 1.25) and heterogeneity P = 0.0012. Additionally, among prevalent CAD cases, we found an evidence of an inverse association between the CAD PRS and risk of all-cause death (OR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85, 0.98) compared with those without CAD (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.03) and heterogeneity P = 0.0041. A similar inverse association was found for ischaemic stroke [prevalent CAD (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.67, 0.90); without CAD (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.04, 1.15), heterogeneity P < 0.001].

conclusionsBias induced by case stratification and survival into UK Biobank may distort the associations of PRS derived from case-control studies or populations initially free of disease. Differentiating between effects of possible biases and genuine biological heterogeneity is a major challenge in disease progression research.

Indexed as

AdultAgedBrain IschemiaCoronary Artery DiseaseFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansMaleMiddle AgedMultifactorial InheritanceMyocardial InfarctionRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsStroke

Identifiers

PMID32219344
PMCPMC7254844

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.