Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32333760›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021

High Rates of Recurrent Tuberculosis Disease: A Population-level Cohort Study.

Sabine M Hermans, Nesbert Zinyakatira, Judy Caldwell, Frank G J Cobelens, Andrew Boulle, Robin Wood

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. The role of neighborhood factors in the cumulative number of episodes of recurrent tuberculosis in Cape Town.Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Long-term Mortality Trends Among Individuals With Tuberculosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Individuals Diagnosed With Tuberculosis in Brazil.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
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  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
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  13. Article
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  15. Article
  16. End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2022
    Review
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Clinical and Imaging Features of Adults with Recurrent Pulmonary Tuberculosis - A Prospective Case-Controlled Study.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021
    Article
  20. Recurrent Tuberculosis Disease in Singapore.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Sabine M HermansAmsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Department of Global Health, Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5146-2932
Nesbert ZinyakatiraSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Judy CaldwellCity Health, Department of Health, Cape Town, South Africa.
Frank G J CobelensAmsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Department of Global Health, Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Andrew BoulleSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Robin WoodDesmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute for Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.

Funding

Optimizing HIV Care in Less Developed CountriesR01AI058736 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Kenneth Alan Freedberg, Emily Parker Hyle · 2004 to 2026
$21.5M
Novel Methods to Inform HIV/TB Clinical Trial DevelopmentR01AI093269 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI REDDY, KRISHNA P · 2011 to 2024
$6.8M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI058736NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI093269
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRetreatment tuberculosis (TB) disease is common in high-prevalence settings. The risk of repeated episodes of recurrent TB is unknown. We calculated the rate of recurrent TB per subsequent episode by matching individual treatment episodes over a period of 13 years.

methodsAll recorded TB episodes in Cape Town between 2003 and 2016 were matched by probabilistic linkage of personal identifiers. Among individuals with a first episode notified in Cape Town and who completed their prior treatment successfully we estimated the recurrence rate stratified by subsequent episode and HIV status. We adjusted person-time to background mortality by age, sex, and HIV status.

resultsA total of 292 915 TB episodes among 263 848 individuals were included. The rate of recurrent TB was 16.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 16.2-16.6), and increased per subsequent episode (8.4-fold increase, from 14.6 to 122.7 per 1000 from episode 2 to 6, respectively). These increases were similar stratified by HIV status. Rates among HIV positives were higher than among HIV negatives for episodes 2 and 3 (2- and 1.5-fold higher, respectively), and the same thereafter.

conclusionsTB recurrence rates were high and increased per subsequent episode, independent of HIV status. This suggests that HIV infection is insufficient to explain the high burden of recurrence; it is more likely due to a high annual risk of infection combined with an increased risk of infection or progression to disease associated with a previous TB episode. The very high recurrence rates would justify increased TB surveillance of patients with >1 episode.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsTuberculosisAntitubercular AgentsCitiesCohort StudiesHumansSouth AfricaAntitubercular Agentsantitubercular agents/therapeutic useepidemiologyincidencerecurrenceSouth Africa

Identifiers

PMID32333760
PMCPMC8315130

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.