ArticleMalaria journal2020
Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach.
Article in Malaria journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of epidemiological models for malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.Malaria journal · 2026Pooled it
- Archetype-based stratification to inform sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Zambia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Comparing three approaches to modelling the effects of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in different climatic regions.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Impact of malaria control interventions on malaria infection and anaemia in low malaria transmission settings: a cross-sectional population-based study in Sudan.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Malaria in pregnancy control and pregnancy outcomes: a decade's overview using Ghana's DHIMS II data.Malaria journal · 2022Review
- Assessing the effectiveness of malaria interventions at the regional level in Ghana using a mathematical modelling application.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThis paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.
methodsUsing data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014-2020.
resultsIncreasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana.
conclusionsProjected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy.
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