ArticleMolecular biology and evolution2021
Biases in Demographic Modeling Affect Our Understanding of Recent Divergence.
Article in Molecular biology and evolution, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers.
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42 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Seizure samples reveal complex evolutionary dynamics among Southeast Asian pangolins.Heredity · 2026Article
- Museomics Sheds Light on Evolutionary Diversity in a Critically Endangered Cockatoo Species From Wallacea.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- An Evolutionary Mosaic Challenges Traditional Monitoring of a Foundation Species in a Coastal Environment-The Baltic Fucus vesiculosus.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- Disentangling Complex Histories of Hybridisation: The Genomic Consequences of Ancient and Recent Introgression in Channel Island Monkeyflowers.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- Genealogical Analysis of Replicate Flower Colour Hybrid Zones in Antirrhinum.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
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- Strong but diffuse genetic divergence underlies differentiation in an incipient species of marine stickleback.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Effective Population Size Estimation in Large Marine Populations: Considering Current Challenges and Opportunities When Simulating Large Data Sets With High-Density Genomic Information.Evolutionary applications · 2025Review
- Going New Places: Successful Adaptation and Genomic Integrity of Grain Amaranth in India.Evolutionary applications · 2025Article
- Management and conservation implications of cryptic population substructure for two commercially exploited fishes (Merluccius spp.) in southern Africa.Molecular ecology resources · 2025Article
- Genomic profiles ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Inferring Long-Term and Short-Term Determinants of Genetic Diversity in Honey Bees: Beekeeping Impact and Conservation Strategies.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Genomic and Acoustic Biogeography of the Iconic Sulphur-crested Cockatoo Clarifies Species Limits and Patterns of Intraspecific Diversity.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Understanding species limits through the formation of phylogeographic lineages.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Genomic landscape of introgression from the ghost lineage in a gobiid fish uncovers the generality of forces shaping hybrid genomes.Molecular ecology · 2024Article
- Article
- Coupling of twelve putative chromosomal inversions maintains a strong barrier to gene flow between snail ecotypes.Evolution letters · 2024Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Testing among competing demographic models of divergence has become an important component of evolutionary research in model and non-model organisms. However, the effect of unaccounted demographic events on model choice and parameter estimation remains largely unexplored. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate that under realistic divergence scenarios, failure to account for population size (Ne) changes in daughter and ancestral populations leads to strong biases in divergence time estimates as well as model choice. We illustrate these issues reconstructing the recent demographic history of North Sea and Baltic Sea turbots (Scophthalmus maximus) by testing 16 isolation with migration (IM) and 16 secondary contact (SC) scenarios, modeling changes in Ne as well as the effects of linked selection and barrier loci. Failure to account for changes in Ne resulted in selecting SC models with long periods of strict isolation and divergence times preceding the formation of the Baltic Sea. In contrast, models accounting for Ne changes suggest recent (<6 kya) divergence with constant gene flow. We further show how interpreting genomic landscapes of differentiation can help discerning among competing models. For example, in the turbot data, islands of differentiation show signatures of recent selective sweeps, rather than old divergence resisting secondary introgression. The results have broad implications for the study of population divergence by highlighting the potential effects of unmodeled changes in Ne on demographic inference. Tested models should aim at representing realistic divergence scenarios for the target taxa, and extreme caution should always be exercised when interpreting results of demographic modeling.
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