ArticleEClinicalMedicine2021
Body mass index trajectories during mid to late life and risks of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes: Results from four prospective cohorts.
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Stage-specific utility of obesity indices across the chronic kidney disease continuum.Renal failure · 2026Article
- Weight trajectories throughout adulthood and prostate cancer incidence, aggressiveness, and death in 258 494 men.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Weight trajectories and obesity onset between 17 and 60 years of age, and cause-specific mortality: the Obesity and Disease Development Sweden (ODDS) pooled cohort study.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Association of annual percentage changes in anthropometric indices with all-cause mortality: a 14-year longitudinal study of older US adults.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Beyond Life's Essential 8: optimizing cardiovascular health metrics to predict mortality.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025Article
- Body mass index trajectories and all-cause mortality in older Chinese adults: Hong Kong's Elderly Health Service Cohort.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2025Article
- From the perspective of dynamic changes in BMI: the relationship between BMI trajectories and dysglycemia, all-cause mortality.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2025Article
- Trajectories of BMI before and after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in a real-world population.Diabetologia · 2024Observational
- Cohort profile: The Obesity and Disease Development Sweden (ODDS) study, a pooled cohort.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Article
- Trends in weight gain recorded in English primary care before and during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic: An observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform.PLoS medicine · 2024Observational
- Work- and mental health-related events and body mass index trajectories during the Covid-19 lockdown. Evidence from the lifelines cohort study in the Netherlands.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2024Article
- Inverse association between Paleolithic Diet Fraction and mortality and incidence of cardiometabolic disease in the prospective Malmö Diet and Cancer Study.European journal of nutrition · 2024Article
- Body mass index trajectories and mortality risk in Japan using a population-based prospective cohort study: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Association of temporal change in body mass index with sudden cardiac arrest in diabetes mellitus.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2024Article
- Associations Between Mid- to Late-Life Body Mass Index and Chronic Disease-Free Survival: A Nationwide Twin Study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2024Article
- Dysregulated responses to stress and weight in people with type 2 diabetes.Journal of psychosomatic research · 2023Article
- Associations of Renal Function Trajectories and Long-Term Cardiovascular Risks Among a Population Without Chronic Kidney Disease.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2023Article
- Dynamic Change of Cardiovascular Health Metrics and Long-Term Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death: The ARIC Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2022Article
- Association Between Dynamic Change of QT Interval and Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Prospective Cohort Study.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOur understanding of the weight-outcome association mainly comes from single-time body mass index (BMI) measurement. However, data on long-term trajectories of within-person changes in BMI on diverse study outcomes are sparse. Therefore,
methodsThe present analysis was based on data from 4 large prospective cohorts and restricted to participants aged ≥45 years with at least two BMI measurements. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for each outcome according to different BMI trajectories were calculated in Cox regression models.
findingsThe final sample comprised 29,311 individuals (mean age 58.31 years, and 77.31% were white), with a median 4 BMI measurements used in this study. During a median follow-up of 21.16 years, there were a total of 10,192 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and 11,589 deaths. A U-shaped relation was seen with all study outcomes. Compared with maintaining stable weight, the multivariate adjusted HR for MACE were 1.53 (95%CI 1.40-1.66), 1.26 (95%CI 1.16-1.37) and 1.08 (95%CI 1.02-1.15) respectively for rapid, moderate and slow weight loss; 1.01 (95%CI 0.95-1.07), 1.13 (95%CI 1.05-1.21) and 1.29 (95%CI 1.20-1.40) respectively for slow, moderate and rapid weight gain. Identical patterns of association were observed for all other outcomes. The development of BMI differed markedly between the outcome-free individuals and those who went on to experience adverse events, generally beginning to diverge 10 years before the occurrence of the events.
interpretationOur findings may signal an underlying high-risk population and inspire future studies on weight management.
fundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangdong Natural Science Foundation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.