ReviewNonlinear dynamics2022
Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.
Review in Nonlinear dynamics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- Numerical robustness of COVID-19 model with Lyapunov stability analysis.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A fractional mathematical model with nonlinear partial differential equations for transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Generation of multi-scrolls in corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) chaotic system and its impact on the zero-covid policy.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Vaccination control measures of an epidemic model with long-term memristive effect.Journal of computational and applied mathematics · 2023Article
- Generalized external synchronization of networks based on clustered pandemic systems-The approach of Covid-19 towards influenza.PloS one · 2023Article
- The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Article
- Preface to the special issue "Complex dynamics of COVID-19: modeling, prediction and control (part II)".Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- ABC Fractional Order Vaccination Model for Covid-19 with Self-Protective Measures.International journal of applied and computational mathematics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Mathematical models based on fractional-order differential equations have recently gained interesting insights into epidemiological phenomena, by virtue of their memory effect and nonlocal nature. This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic behavior of a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives. The model is based on the Caputo operator and takes into account the daily new cases, the daily additional severe cases, and the daily deaths. By analyzing the stability of the equilibrium points and by continuously varying the values of the fractional order, the paper shows that the conceived COVID-19 pandemic model exhibits chaotic behaviors. The system dynamics are investigated via bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, time series, and phase portraits. A comparison between integer-order and fractional-order COVID-19 pandemic models highlights that the latter is more accurate in predicting the daily new cases. Simulation results, besides to confirming that the novel fractional model well fit the real pandemic data, also indicate that the numbers of new cases, severe cases, and deaths undertake chaotic behaviors without any useful attempt to control the disease. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06867-5.
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