ArticlePLoS medicine2021
Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.
Article in PLoS medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 44 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Pooled it
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Recommendations for the analysis of leading indicators in epidemic surveillance.PLOS digital health · 2026Review
- Capacity for national health policy modelling, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Long-term projections of cancer prevalence in Australia to 2050: a population-based statistical modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- West Nile Virus Transmission Suitability Modeling forGeoHealth · 2026Article
- A New Integrative Modeling Approach for Generating Counterfactual Projections of Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates in the Absence of Organized Screening in Australia.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2026Article
- Multi-Model Ensembles in Infectious Disease and Public Health: Methods, Interpretation, and Implementation in R.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Reflections on predictive modeling for infectious diseases.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- How do social network models compare to all-to-all models for forecasting tuberculosis epidemics? A mathematical modeling study.PloS one · 2026Article
- Guidelines on reporting and assessing dynamic mathematical models of infectious diseases: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- A Systematic Review of Spatial Epidemiological Modeling Approaches Applied During the COVID-19 Pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Using Surveillance Data to Estimate Infectious Disease Burden: Opportunities and Challenges.American journal of public health · 2025Article
- Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2024Article
- Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Incorporating endogenous human behavior in models of COVID-19 transmission: A systematic scoping review.Dialogues in health · 2024Article
- Prognosis prediction models for post-stroke depression: a protocol for systematic review, meta-analysis, and critical appraisal.Systematic reviews · 2024Article
- Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
30 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND
findingsWe developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies.
conclusionsThese guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.