Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34725739›Full record

ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2021

A chain binomial epidemic with asymptomatics motivated by COVID-19 modelling.

Claude Lefèvre, Philippe Picard, Matthieu Simon, Sergey Utev

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Claude LefèvreDépartement de Mathématique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Campus Plaine C.P. 210, 1050, Brussels, Belgium. claude.lefevre@ulb.be.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2575-2650
Philippe PicardISFA, LSAF EA2429, Univ Lyon, Université Lyon 1, 50 Avenue Tony Garnier, 69007, Lyon, France.
Matthieu SimonDepartament de Matemàtica Econòmica, Financera i Actuarial, Universitat de Barcelona, 690 Avinguda Diagonal, 08034, Barcelona, Spain.
Sergey UtevDepartment of Mathematics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Motivated by modelling epidemics like COVID-19, this paper proposes a generalized chain binomial process which integrates two types of infectives, those with symptoms and those without. Testing of infectives and vaccination of susceptibles are then incorporated as preventive protective measures. Our interest relates to the distribution of the state of the population at the end of infection and to the reproduction number [Formula: see text] with the associated extinction condition. The method uses the construction of a family of martingales and a branching approximation for large populations, respectively. A more general branching process for epidemics is also constructed and studied. Finally, some results obtained are illustrated by numerical examples.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsBasic Reproduction NumberDisease SusceptibilityHumansModels, BiologicalSARS-CoV-2Approximation by branchingFinal population stateReproduction numberSymptomatic infected or notTesting and vaccination

Identifiers

PMID34725739
PMCPMC8559945

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.