ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2022
Predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator: a registry-based cohort study.
Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and the risk of vertebral fracture in patients with osteoporosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2023Pooled it
- Fully automated system predicts osteoporotic vertebral fracture across institutions using lumbar MRI paraspinal muscle signatures.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- External validation of a novel HR-pQCT based fracture risk assessment tool (μFRAC) in a male cohort: the osteoporotic fractures in men (MrOS) study.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026Article
- Incidence of first and subsequent fractures in multiple myeloma patients: a parallel cohort study using UK CPRD dataset.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026Article
- Longitudinal associations between changes in bone mechanical strength and fracture risk estimated by μFRAC.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026Article
- Screening for Osteoporosis in Nonagenarians: A Scoping Review.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2025Article
- Introducing FREMArchives of osteoporosis · 2025Article
- Article
- Emerging basic science concepts in geriatric fracture fixation and patient recovery.OTA international : the open access journal of orthopaedic trauma · 2025Article
- Hip Fractures: Clinical, Biomaterial and Biomechanical Insights into a Common Health Challenge.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Naïve Bayes is an interpretable and predictive machine learning algorithm in predicting osteoporotic hip fracture in-hospital mortality compared to other machine learning algorithms.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Machine learning approaches to predict hip fracture incidence: insights from the CHARLS dataset.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Risk analysis for subsequent fracture of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese women over age 60: a nationwide cross-sectional study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Hip Fracture Risk Assessment Tools for Adults Aged 80 Years and Older.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- The multi-faceted nature of age-associated osteoporosis.Bone reports · 2024Review
- External validation of FRISBEE 5-year fracture prediction models: a registry-based cohort study.Archives of osteoporosis · 2022Article
- Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2022Article
- Treating osteoporosis: risks and management.Australian prescriber · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The G arvan Fracture Risk Calculator predicts risk of osteoporotic fractures. We evaluated its predictive performance in 16,682 women and 2839 men from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant risk stratification, with a strong gradient across scores. The tool outperformed clinical risk factors and bone mineral density for fracture risk stratification.
introductionThe optimal model for fracture risk estimation to guide treatment decision-making remains controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC) in a large clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada.
methodsUsing the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) registry, we identified women and men aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from September 1, 2012, onwards. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified incident non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OFs) and hip fractures (HFs) from population-based healthcare data sources to March 31, 2018. Fracture risk was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Cox regression analysis and calibration ratios (5-year observed/predicted) were assessed for risk quintiles. All analyses were sex stratified.
resultsWe included 16,682 women (mean age 66.6 + / - SD 8.7 years) and 2839 men (mean age 68.7 + / - SD 10.2 years). During a mean observation time of 2.6 years, incident OFs were identified in 681 women and 140 men and HFs in 199 women and 22 men. AUROC showed significant fracture risk stratification with the Garvan FRC. Tool predictions without BMD were better than from age or decreasing weight, and the tool with BMD performed better than BMD alone. Garvan FRC with BMD performed better than without BMD, especially for HF prediction (AUROC 0.86 in women, 0.82 in men). There was a strong gradient of increasing risk across Garvan FRC quintiles (highest versus lowest, hazard ratios women 5.75 and men 3.43 for any OF; women 101.6 for HF). Calibration differences were noted, with both over- and underestimation in risk.
conclusionsGarvan FRC outperformed CRFs and BMD alone for fracture risk stratification, particularly for HF, but may require recalibration for accurate predictions in this population.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.