ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Understanding the role of international flight networks in disease spread: spatial epidemic prevention zones and hierarchical disease control policies.International journal of health geographics · 2026Article
- Good Practices for Managing Acute Respiratory Viral Infections at Aerial Entry Points: A Scoping Review.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Cross-border vaccination behaviour of residents living in a European Union border region: a cross-sectional survey study.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand border arrivals.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Effectiveness of Point of Entry Health Screening Measures among Travelers in the Detection and Containment of the International Spread of COVID-19: A Review of the Evidence.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Review
- Optimization of Screening Strategies for COVID-19: Scoping Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Rapid prototyping of models for COVID-19 outbreak detection in workplaces.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Comparing SARS-CoV-2 testing positivity rates and COVID-19 impact among different isolation strategies: a rapid systematic review and a modelling study.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Article
- Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Multiple Concurrent Causal Relationships and Multiple Governance Pathways for Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies in Pandemics: A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 102 Countries and Regions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Cost benefit analysis of alternative testing and quarantine policies for travelers for infection control: A case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: A scoping review and future directions.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strategies and different levels of vaccine coverage in the population. Results are calculated from N = 100,000 independent realisations of the stochastic model. We find that strategies that rely on home isolation are significantly higher risk than the current mandatory 14-day stay in government-managed isolation. Nevertheless, combinations of testing and home isolation can still reduce the risk of a community outbreak to around one outbreak per 100 infected travellers. We also find that, under some circumstances, using daily lateral flow tests or a combination of lateral flow tests and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can reduce risk to a comparable or lower level than using PCR tests alone. Combined with controls on the number of travellers from countries with high prevalence of COVID-19, our results allow different options for managing the risk of COVID-19 at the border to be compared. This can be used to inform strategies for relaxing border controls in a phased way, while limiting the risk of community outbreaks as vaccine coverage increases.
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.