ArticleScientific reports2022
Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Ontario, Canada: a modeling study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Integrated disease model considering mutation-induced infection waves with COVID-19 cases.PloS one · 2026Article
- Discovering governing equations of biological systems through representation learning and sparse model discovery.NAR genomics and bioinformatics · 2025Article
- Prevalence and Predictors of Concomitant Bacterial Infections in Patients With Respiratory Viruses in Ontario: A Cohort Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The Clinical Severity of COVID-19 Variants of Concern: Retrospective Population-Based Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Reduced seasonal coronavirus incidence in high-risk population groups during the COVID-19 pandemic.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2024Article
- Modelling COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Laos under non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and replacement of SARS-CoV-2 variants.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Clinical and serological predictors of post COVID-19 condition-findings from a Canadian prospective cohort study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Wastewater surveillance monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and dynamics of transmission and community burden of COVID-19.Emerging microbes & infections · 2023Article
- A comparative study of compartmental models for COVID-19 transmission in Ontario, Canada.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Vaccine hesitancy promotes emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Sensitivity to Neutralizing Antibodies and Resistance to Type I Interferons in SARS-CoV-2 R.1 Lineage Variants, Canada.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- The Principles of SARS-CoV-2 Intervariant Competition Are Exemplified in the Pre-Omicron Era of the Colombian Epidemic.Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- A mathematical model for COVID-19 considering waning immunity, vaccination and control measures.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Primary and booster vaccination in reducing severe clinical outcomes associated with Omicron Naïve infection.Journal of infection and public health · 2023Observational
- Host genetics and gut microbiota composition: Baseline gut microbiota composition as a possible prognostic factor for the severity of COVID-19 in patients with familial Mediterranean fever disease.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Network-augmented compartmental models to track asymptomatic disease spread.Bioinformatics advances · 2023Article
- Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants.Advanced theory and simulations · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of COVID-19 variants of concern: Asymptotic and finite-time perspectives.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A year after the initial wild-type Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains began their devastation of the world, they were supplanted by new variants of concern (VOC). In Ontario, Canada, the wild type was overtaken first by the Alpha/B1.1.17 variant, and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The principal objective of the present study is to develop and apply a much expanded Susceptible-Infection-Recovered-type model to better understand the spread of multiple VOC, and assess the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). The model represents competition among VOC, and reveals their mutual inhibitory effects. By separately tracking asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, model simulations identify a significant role of vaccine breakthrough in the spread of Delta. Furthermore, the severity of a Delta outbreak depends not only on the NPI and vaccination rate but also on the vaccine types. Alarmingly, despite Ontario's existing NPI and relatively successful vaccine rollout, a future, more dangerous VOC could potentially infect a significant fraction of the province's population and overwhelm the health care system. To stop that VOC, the province may need the simultaneous and rapid deployment of a third booster vaccine and stringent NPI.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.