ArticleNature communications2022
Cancer patient survival can be parametrized to improve trial precision and reveal time-dependent therapeutic effects.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Bayesian meta-analysis of penetrance for cancer risk.Biometrics · 2024Pooled it
- A meta-analysis with systematic review: Efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with advanced gastric cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Pooled it
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab combined with tremelimumab versus sorafenib as first-line treatment for unresectable Hepatocellular carcinoma in China: a dual-model approach utilizing partitioned survival and markov models.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Time-dependent effects of BCG plus immune checkpoint inhibitors in BCG-naive high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: a reconstructed patient-level analysis.International urology and nephrology · 2026Article
- Computed tomography-based prediction of early recurrence risks with estimating individual times to recurrence for lung cancer patients prior to radiotherapy.Physics and imaging in radiation oncology · 2026Article
- Does lung adenocarcinoma subtyping offer clinical benefits?-a retrospective population-based cohort study from Sweden.Annals of translational medicine · 2026Article
- Additivity, Not Synergy, Underlies the Efficacy of Current Combination Regimens in Urothelial Cancer.Cancer research communications · 2026Article
- Equivalence of neoadjuvant and perioperative therapies in patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Hazard-based distributional regression via ordinary differential equations.Statistical methods in medical research · 2026Article
- Novel R Shiny Tool for Survival Analysis With Time-Varying Covariate in Oncology Studies: Overcoming Biases and Enhancing Collaboration.JCO clinical cancer informatics · 2026Article
- Bayesian Prediction of Event Times Using Mixture Model for Blinded Randomized Controlled Trials.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- A Two-Step Variable Selection Strategy for Multiply Imputed Survival Data Using Penalized Cox Models.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- A stochastic modelling framework for cancer patient trajectories: combining tumour growth, metastasis, and survival.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- A Model of Intratumor and Interpatient Heterogeneity Explains Clinical Trials of Curative Combination Therapy for Lymphoma.Blood cancer discovery · 2025Article
- Article
- Weibull parametric model for survival analysis in women with endometrial cancer using clinical and T2-weighted MRI radiomic features.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Imputation of Missing Data for Time-to-Event Endpoints Using Retrieved Dropouts.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab plus tremelimumab as first-line therapy in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.Therapeutic advances in medical oncology · 2024Article
- The heterogeneous impact of targeted therapy on the prognosis of stage III/IV colorectal cancer patients with different subtypes of TP53 mutations.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
- Additivity predicts the efficacy of most approved combination therapies for advanced cancer.Nature cancer · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Individual participant data (IPD) from oncology clinical trials is invaluable for identifying factors that influence trial success and failure, improving trial design and interpretation, and comparing pre-clinical studies to clinical outcomes. However, the IPD used to generate published survival curves are not generally publicly available. We impute survival IPD from ~500 arms of Phase 3 oncology trials (representing ~220,000 events) and find that they are well fit by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Use of Weibull functions with overall survival significantly increases the precision of small arms typical of early phase trials: analysis of a 50-patient trial arm using parametric forms is as precise as traditional, non-parametric analysis of a 90-patient arm. We also show that frequent deviations from the Cox proportional hazards assumption, particularly in trials of immune checkpoint inhibitors, arise from time-dependent therapeutic effects. Trial duration therefore has an underappreciated impact on the likelihood of success.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.