ArticleScientific reports2022
A COVID-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Quantifying age-specific household contacts in Aotearoa New Zealand for infectious disease modelling.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Near-term forecasting of Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Modeling and analysis of novel COVID-19 outbreak under fractal-fractional derivative in Caputo sense with power-law: a case study of Pakistan.Modeling earth systems and environment · 2023Article
- Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of the Omicron BA.5 subvariant in New Zealand.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Seasonal Variation Analysis for Weekly Cases, Deaths, and Hospitalizations of COVID-19 in the United States.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2023Article
- Modelling the dynamics of infection, waning of immunity and re-infection with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Using mechanistic model-based inference to understand and project epidemic dynamics with time-varying contact and vaccination rates.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.PeerJ · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effect of New Zealand's vaccine rollout on the potential spread and health impacts of COVID-19. The main purpose of this study is to provide a basis for policy advice on border restrictions and control measures in response to outbreaks that may occur during the vaccination roll-out. The model can be used to estimate the theoretical population immunity threshold, which represents a point in the vaccine rollout at which border restrictions and other controls could be removed and only small, occasional outbreaks would take place. We find that, with a basic reproduction number of 6, approximately representing the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, and under baseline vaccine effectiveness assumptions, reaching the population immunity threshold would require close to 100% of the total population to be vaccinated. Since this coverage is not likely to be achievable in practice, relaxing controls completely would risk serious health impacts. However, the higher vaccine coverage is, the more collective protection the population has against adverse health outcomes from COVID-19, and the easier it will become to control outbreaks. There remains considerable uncertainty in model outputs, in part because of the potential for the evolution of new variants. If new variants arise that are more transmissible or vaccine resistant, an increase in vaccine coverage will be needed to provide the same level of protection.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.