ArticleMedizinische Klinik, Intensivmedizin und Notfallmedizin2023
[Forecasting models to guide intensive care COVID-19 capacities in Germany].
Article in Medizinische Klinik, Intensivmedizin und Notfallmedizin, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Intensive care patients eligible for intermediate care unit-level care: a single-centre prospective cohort study in Belgium.Critical care science · 2026Article
- [The SCATTER project: computer-based simulation in the strategic transfer of intensive care patients].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTime-series forecasting models play a central role in guiding intensive care coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bed capacity in a pandemic. A key predictor of future intensive care unit (ICU) COVID-19 bed occupancy is the number of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the general population, which in turn is highly associated with week-to-week variability, reporting delays, regional differences, number of unknown cases, time-dependent infection rates, vaccinations, SARS-CoV‑2 virus variants, and nonpharmaceutical containment measures. Furthermore, current and also future COVID ICU occupancy is significantly influenced by ICU discharge and mortality rates.
methodsBoth the number of new SARS-CoV‑2 infections in the general population and intensive care COVID-19 bed occupancy rates are recorded in Germany. These data are statistically analyzed on a daily basis using epidemic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infection, recovered) models using ordinary differential equations and multiple regression models.
resultsForecast results of the immediate trend (20-day forecast) of ICU occupancy by COVID-19 patients are made available to decision makers at various levels throughout the country.
conclusionThe forecasts are compared with the development of available ICU bed capacities in order to identify capacity limitations at an early stage and to enable short-term solutions to be made, such as supraregional transfers.
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Registered trials
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