Finding the adaptive needles in a population-structured haystack: A case study in a New Zealand mollusc.

Genetic adaptation to future environmental conditions is crucial to help species persist as the climate changes. Genome scans are powerful tools to understand adaptive landscapes, enabling us to correlate genetic diversity with environmental gradients while disentangling neutral from adaptive variation. However, low gene flow can lead to both local adaptation and highly structured populations, and is a major confounding factor for genome scans, resulting in an inflated number of candidate loci. Here, we compared candidate locus detection in a marine mollusc (Onithochiton neglectus), taking advantage of a natural geographical contrast in the levels of genetic structure between its populations. O. neglectus is endemic to New Zealand and distributed throughout an environmental gradient from the subtropical north to the subantarctic south. Due to a brooding developmental mode, populations tend to be locally isolated. However, adult hitchhiking on rafting kelp increases connectivity among southern populations. We applied two genome scans for outliers (Bayescan and PCAdapt) and two genotype-environment association (GEA) tests (BayeScEnv and RDA). To limit issues with false positives, we combined results using the geometric mean of q-values and performed association tests with random environmental variables. This novel approach is a compromise between stringent and relaxed approaches widely used before, and allowed us to classify candidate loci as low confidence or high confidence. Genome scans for outliers detected a large number of significant outliers in strong and moderately structured populations. No high-confidence GEA loci were detected in the context of strong population structure. However, 86 high-confidence loci were associated predominantly with latitudinally varying abiotic factors in the less structured southern populations. This suggests that the degree of connectivity driven by kelp rafting over the southern scale may be insufficient to counteract local adaptation in this species. Our study supports the expectation that genome scans may be prone to errors in highly structured populations. Nonetheless, it also empirically demonstrates that careful statistical controls enable the identification of candidate loci that invite more detailed investigations. Ultimately, genome scans are valuable tools to help guide further research aiming to determine the potential of non-model species to adapt to future environments.