Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35443971›Full record

ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2022

Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis.

Susanne F Awad, Amine A Toumi, Kholood A Al-Mutawaa, Salah A Alyafei, Muhammad A Ijaz, Shamseldin A H Khalifa, Suresh B Kokku, Amit C M Mishra, Benjamin V Poovelil, Mounir B Soussi and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Incidence and outcomes of diabetes mellitus amongst hospital admissions withFrontiers in clinical diabetes and healthcare · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Susanne F AwadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Doha, Qatar sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-5060-7404
Amine A ToumiPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Kholood A Al-MutawaaPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Salah A AlyafeiPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Muhammad A IjazPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Shamseldin A H KhalifaPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Suresh B KokkuPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Amit C M MishraPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Benjamin V PoovelilPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Mounir B SoussiPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Katie G El-NahasQatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Abdulla O Al-HamaqQatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Julia A CritchleyPopulation Health Research Institute, St. George's, University of London, London, UK.
Mohammed H Al-ThaniPublic Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar.
Laith J Abu-RaddadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Doha, Qatar.ORCID 0000-0003-0790-0506

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWe aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsAn age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources.

resultsBetween 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar-for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial.

conclusionsT2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2HumansModels, TheoreticalObesityQatarRisk FactorsAsiaBody Mass IndexDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Mathematical Modeling

Identifiers

PMID35443971
PMCPMC9021773

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.