Evidence mapPaperPMID 35534726Full record

SynthesisActa diabetologica2022

Is HbA1c a valid surrogate for mortality in type 2 diabetes? Evidence from a meta-analysis of randomized trials.

Christina Baechle, Wiebke Scherler, Alexander Lang, Tim Filla, Oliver Kuss

Open access · hybridAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Acta diabetologica, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 21% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 8 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Christina BaechleInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany. christina.baechle@ddz.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1262-7591
Wiebke ScherlerInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Alexander LangInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Tim FillaInstitute of Medical Biometrics and Bioinformatics, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Moorenstr. 5, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Oliver KussInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Deutsches Diabetes-Zentrum e.V. · DEHeinrich Heine University Düsseldorf · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsHemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) has been repeatedly questioned as a valid surrogate marker, especially for patient-relevant outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate the HbA1c value as a surrogate for all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes.

methodsThe effect estimates for HbA1c lowering after treatment as well as reductions in all-cause mortality of randomized trials were extracted from a systematic review and updated. For the measurement of actual surrogacy, weighted linear regression models with a random intercept for the study effect were used with the all-cause mortality estimate (risk difference and log relative risk) as the outcome and the estimate for HbA1c difference as the covariate. Surrogacy was assessed according to the criteria of Daniels and Hughes.

resultsA total of 346 HbA1c-mortality-pairs from 205 single randomized trials were included in the analysis. Regarding the risk difference of all-cause mortality, there was no evidence for surrogacy of the HbA1c value. For the log relative risk, a small positive association between HbA1c and the all-cause mortality estimate (slope 0.129 [95% confidence interval -0.043; 0.302]) was observed. However, there was no sign of valid surrogacy.

conclusionsBased on the results of more than 200 randomized trials, HbA1c is not a valid surrogate marker for all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2BiomarkersGlycated HemoglobinHumansRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicBiomarkersGlycated HemoglobinHbA1cHemoglobin A1cMortalityPredictionSurrogateType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID35534726
PMCPMC9402721
OpenAlexW4229459582

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.