Nomogram-based prediction of clinically significant macular edema in diabetes mellitus patients.

aimsThe aim of the study was to construct and validate a risk nomogram for clinically significant macular edema (CSME) prediction in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients using systemic variables.

methodsIn this retrospective study, DM inpatients who underwent routine diabetic retinopathy screening were recruited and divided into training and validation sets according to their admission date. Ninety-three demographic and systemic variables were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select the predictive variables from the training set. The selected variables were used to construct the CSME prediction nomogram. Internal and external validations were performed. The C-index, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were reported.

resultsA total of 349 patients were divided into the training set (240, 68.77%) and the validation set (109, 31.23%). The presence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) symptoms, uric acid, use of insulin only or not for treatment, insulin dosage, urinary protein grade and disease duration were chosen for the nomogram. The C-index of the prediction nomogram was 0.896, 0.878 and 0.837 in the training set, internal validation and external validation, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good agreement between the predicted and actual outcomes. DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

conclusionsA nomogram with good performance for predicting CSME using systemic variables was developed. It suggested that DPN symptoms and renal function may be crucial risk factors for CSME. Moreover, this nomogram may be a convenient tool for non-ophthalmic specialists to rapidly recognize CSME in patients and to transfer them to ophthalmologists for early diagnosis and treatment.