ArticleBMC medical research methodology2022
Does group-based trajectory modeling estimate spurious trajectories?
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed.
- Group-based trajectory modelling of multiple health outcomes in a cost-consequence framework: a randomized controlled trial of a remote person-centred care intervention for people with common mental disorders in Sweden.Journal of patient-reported outcomes · 2026Trial
- Trajectories of change in prolonged exposure for primary care: Who most likely benefits?Psychological trauma : theory, research, practice and policy · 2025Trial
- Cocaine craving and use during pharmacotherapy trials for cocaine use disorder: A multi-trajectory analysis.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2025Trial
- When Cumulative Frailty Includes Future CVD Events: Time-Order Concerns in CKM Syndrome Research.Geriatrics & gerontology international · 2026Article
- Prenatal Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Fetal Growth Trajectories in Wuhan, China.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- Relative strengths in daily living skills among autistic individuals and individuals with related developmental conditions who have co-occurring intellectual disability.Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines · 2026Article
- Letter to the Editor Regarding "Association of Frailty and Its Trajectories With the Risk of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study".Geriatrics & gerontology international · 2026Article
- Offending Trajectories of Men With Adult-Onset Sexual Offending Histories.Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment · 2026Article
- Observational
- Trajectories of antidepressant dispensing among privately insured transgender people in the United States.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Joint trajectories of burden and benefits of caregiving among informal caregivers of older adults with functional limitations: a longitudinal study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- PCSK9 inhibitors patterns of use in France from nationwide repeated cross-sectional and cohort studies.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- High-Frequency Functional Trajectories Predict Depressive Worsening in Singapore's Community-Dwelling Older Adults.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Associations between Diet Quality and Global Cognitive Ability across the Life Course: Longitudinal Analysis of the 1946 British Birth Cohort.Current developments in nutrition · 2026Article
- Dietary quality across the life course and metabolic syndrome: evidence from two decades of follow-up in rural China young adults.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Sleep duration and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2025Article
- The influence of adiposity status and the trajectories of obesity indicators on earlier puberty onset in girls: a longitudinal cohort study in Shanghai, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Metabolic syndrome in the association of BMI and trajectory of depressive symptoms in middle-aged and elderly population: a cohort study from China.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2025Article
- Disentangling unobserved heterogeneity: Novel application of a statistical method to evaluate a multilevel healthcare intervention for hispanic individuals living on the United States-Mexico border with comorbid diabetes and hypertension.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Group-based trajectory modeling of anion gap and mortality in patients with sepsis: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database.European journal of medical research · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundGroup-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) is increasingly used to identify subgroups of individuals with similar patterns. In this paper, we use simulated and real-life data to illustrate that GBTM is susceptible to generating spurious findings in some circumstances.
methodsSix plausible scenarios, two of which mimicked published analyses, were simulated. Models with 1 to 10 trajectory subgroups were estimated and the model that minimized the Bayes criterion was selected. For each scenario, we assessed whether the method identified the correct number of trajectories, the correct shapes of the trajectories, and the mean number of participants of each trajectory subgroup. The performance of the average posterior probabilities, relative entropy and mismatch criteria to assess classification adequacy were compared.
resultsAmong the six scenarios, the correct number of trajectories was identified in two, the correct shapes in four and the mean number of participants of each trajectory subgroup in only one. Relative entropy and mismatch outperformed the average posterior probability in detecting spurious trajectories.
conclusionResearchers should be aware that GBTM can generate spurious findings, especially when the average posterior probability is used as the sole criterion to evaluate model fit. Several model adequacy criteria should be used to assess classification adequacy.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.