SynthesisDiabetes care2022
Development and Validation of Prediction Models of Adverse Kidney Outcomes in the Population With and Without Diabetes.
Synthesis in Diabetes care, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 58 citations in OpenAlex.
- Simultaneous initiation of finerenone and empagliflozin across the spectrum of kidney risk in the CONFIDENCE trial.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2025Trial
- Predicting High-Risk CKD in Japanese People: Model Development and Validation.Kidney international reports · 2026Article
- Dynamic Bayesian networks to predict loss of kidney function: a cross-institution use case in a large cohort with or at-risk of CKD.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- Dynamically predicting renal failure after development of diabetes across biobanks.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Interpretable predictive model for deterioration of kidney function in patients with stage 4 cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.BMC nephrology · 2026Article
- Kidney outcomes with GLP-1 receptor agonists in people with type 2 diabetes already receiving SGLT2 inhibitors: a target trial emulation study using UK primary care data.The Lancet. Primary care · 2026Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Artificial Intelligence-Driven Risk Stratification in Patients With Diabetic Kidney Disease in the US Veterans Population.Kidney medicine · 2026Article
- Precision medicine in type 2 diabetes: targeting SGLT2 inhibitor treatment for kidney protection.Diabetologia · 2026Observational
- Validation of the Klinrisk Machine Learning Model for CKD Progression in a Large Representative US Population.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2026Article
- A Road Map to Understanding Cardiovascular Disease in Diabetes: From the AHA Strategically Focused Research Network in Cardiometabolic Health and Type 2 Diabetes.Circulation research · 2026Review
- Prognostic Value of Claims Data for Chronic Kidney Disease-Associated Health Risks.Kidney & blood pressure research · 2026Article
- Real-World Data as External Control in Assessing the Efficacy of Allogeneic Adipose-Derived Stem Cells Therapy for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease.Clinical and translational science · 2025Article
- Risk of Progression and Costs of Care for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2025Article
- Preventing chronic kidney disease and maintaining kidney health: conclusions from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference.Kidney international · 2025Article
- Developments in albuminuria testing: A key biomarker for detection, prognosis and surveillance of kidney and cardiovascular disease-A practical update for clinicians.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2025Review
- Risk-directed management of chronic kidney disease.Nature reviews. Nephrology · 2025Review
- The Limits of Generalizability: Pitfalls of Applying Western GFR Estimation Models to Global Populations.Kidney international reports · 2024Article
- Chronic Kidney Disease Progression-A Challenge.Biomedicines · 2024Review
- Challenges in predictive modelling of chronic kidney disease: A narrative review.World journal of nephrology · 2024Review
- Care of Adults with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
37 authors at 20 institutions in 12 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo predict adverse kidney outcomes for use in optimizing medical management and clinical trial design. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsIn this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 43 cohorts (N = 1,621,817) from research studies, electronic medical records, and clinical trials with global representation were separated into development and validation cohorts. Models were developed and validated within strata of diabetes mellitus (presence or absence) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥60 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) to predict a composite of ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure (i.e., receipt of kidney replacement therapy) over 2-3 years.
resultsThere were 17,399 and 24,591 events in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models predicting ≥40% eGFR decline or kidney failure incorporated age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, history of heart failure, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, smoking status, and BMI, and, in those with diabetes, hemoglobin A1c, insulin use, and oral diabetes medication use. The median C-statistic was 0.774 (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.753, 0.782) in the diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.769 (IQR = 0.758, 0.808) in the diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.740 (IQR = 0.717, 0.763) in the no diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; and 0.750 (IQR = 0.731, 0.785) in the no diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts. Incorporating the previous 2-year eGFR slope minimally improved model performance, and then only in the higher-eGFR cohorts.
conclusionsNovel prediction equations for a decline of ≥40% in eGFR can be applied successfully for use in the general population in persons with and without diabetes with higher or lower eGFR.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.