ArticleObesity (Silver Spring, Md.)2022
BMI trajectories, morbidity, and mortality in England: a two-step approach to estimating consequences of changes in BMI.
Article in Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Life Course Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Risk of Cancer in Adulthood: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026Pooled it
- Long-term trends in central obesity in England: an age-period-cohort approach.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2026Article
- Three rising stars in ageing research.Nature · 2025Article
- Body mass index trajectories in older adulthood and all-cause mortality: a cohort study in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Association of BMI trajectories and healthy aging among Chinese older adults: a national cohort study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Impact of adiposity indices changes across the lifespan on risk of diabetes in women: trajectory modeling approach.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The importance of missing data in estimating BMI trajectories.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- An age-period-cohort approach to studying long-term trends in obesity and overweight in England (1992-2019).Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2023Article
- Article
- BMI trajectories, morbidity, and mortality in England: a two-step approach to estimating consequences of changes in BMI.Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveBMI is known to have an association with morbidities and mortality. Many studies have argued that identifying health risks using single BMI measures has limitations, particularly in older adults, and that changes in BMI can help to identify risks. This study identifies distinct BMI trajectories and their association with the risks of a range of morbidities and mortality.
methodsThe English Longitudinal Study of Aging provides data on BMI, mortality, and morbidities between 1998 and 2015, sampled from adults over 50 years of age. This study uses a growth-mixture model and discrete-time survival analysis, combined using a two-step approach, which is novel in this setting, to the authors' knowledge.
resultsThis study identified four trajectories: "stable overweight," "elevated BMI," "increasing BMI," and "decreasing BMI." No differences in mortality, cancer, or stroke risk were found between these trajectories. BMI trajectories were significantly associated with the risks of diabetes, asthma, arthritis, and heart problems.
conclusionsThese results emphasize the importance of looking at change in BMI alongside most recent BMI; BMI trajectories should be considered where possible when assessing health risks. The results suggest that established BMI thresholds should not be used in isolation to identify health risks, particularly in older adults.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.