ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2022
Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Sustained excess all-cause mortality post COVID-19 in 21 countries: an ecological investigation.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Impact of Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Possible COVID-19 Viral Evolutions Using an Agent-Based Simulation.AJPM focus · 2024Article
- Model-informed health and socio-economic benefits of enhancing global equity and access to Covid-19 vaccines.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Using the precaution adoption process model to understand decision-making about the COVID-19 booster vaccine in England.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Qualitative Conceptual Content Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Administration Error Inquiries.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Long-term control of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks depends on the widespread coverage of effective vaccines. In Australia, two-dose vaccination coverage of above 90% of the adult population was achieved. However, between August 2020 and August 2021, hesitancy fluctuated dramatically. This raised the question of whether settings with low naturally derived immunity, such as Queensland where less than [Formula: see text] of the population is known to have been infected in 2020, could have achieved herd immunity against 2021's variants of concern. To address this question, we used the agent-based model Covasim. We simulated outbreak scenarios (with the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants) and assumed ongoing interventions (testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine). We modelled vaccination using two approaches with different levels of realism. Hesitancy was modelled using Australian survey data. We found that with a vaccine effectiveness against infection of 80%, it was possible to control outbreaks of Alpha, but not Delta or Omicron. With 90% effectiveness, Delta outbreaks may have been preventable, but not Omicron outbreaks. We also estimated that a decrease in hesitancy from 20% to 14% reduced the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths by over 30%. Overall, we demonstrate that while herd immunity may not be attainable, modest reductions in hesitancy and increases in vaccine uptake may greatly improve health outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.