Evidence mapPaperPMID 35996111Full record

ArticleCardiovascular diabetology2022

Time-resolved trajectory of glucose lowering medications and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes: a recurrent neural network analysis.

Enrico Longato, Barbara Di Camillo, Giovanni Sparacino, Angelo Avogaro, Gian Paolo Fadini

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Article in Cardiovascular diabetology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Enrico LongatoDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, 35100, Padua, Italy.
Barbara Di CamilloDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, 35100, Padua, Italy.
Giovanni SparacinoDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, 35100, Padua, Italy.
Angelo AvogaroDepartment of Medicine DIMED, University of Padova, Via Giustiniani 2, 35100, Padua, Italy.
Gian Paolo FadiniDepartment of Medicine DIMED, University of Padova, Via Giustiniani 2, 35100, Padua, Italy. gianpaolo.fadini@unipd.it.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimTreatment algorithms define lines of glucose lowering medications (GLM) for the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but whether therapeutic trajectories are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is unclear. We explored whether the temporal resolution of GLM usage discriminates patients who experienced a 4P-MACE (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, death for all causes).

methodsWe used an administrative database (Veneto region, North-East Italy, 2011-2018) and implemented recurrent neural networks (RNN) with outcome-specific attention maps. The model input included age, sex, diabetes duration, and a matrix of GLM pattern before the 4P-MACE or censoring. Model output was discrimination, reported as area under receiver characteristic curve (AUROC). Attention maps were produced to show medications whose time-resolved trajectories were the most important for discrimination.

resultsThe analysis was conducted on 147,135 patients for training and model selection and on 10,000 patients for validation. Collected data spanned a period of ~ 6 years. The RNN model efficiently discriminated temporal patterns of GLM ending in a 4P-MACE vs. those ending in an event-free censoring with an AUROC of 0.911 (95% C.I. 0.904-0.919). This excellent performance was significantly better than that of other models not incorporating time-resolved GLM trajectories: (i) a logistic regression on the bag-of-words encoding all GLM ever taken by the patient (AUROC 0.754; 95% C.I. 0.743-0.765); (ii) a model including the sequence of GLM without temporal relationships (AUROC 0.749; 95% C.I. 0.737-0.761); (iii) a RNN model with the same construction rules but including a time-inverted or randomised order of GLM. Attention maps identified the time-resolved pattern of most common first-line (metformin), second-line (sulphonylureas) GLM, and insulin (glargine) as those determining discrimination capacity.

conclusionsThe time-resolved pattern of GLM use identified patients with subsequent cardiovascular events better than the mere list or sequence of prescribed GLM. Thus, a patient's therapeutic trajectory could determine disease outcomes.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Myocardial InfarctionGlucoseHumansHypoglycemic AgentsNeural Networks, ComputerGlucoseHypoglycemic AgentsAlgorithmArtificial intelligenceEpidemiologyPrediction

Identifiers

PMID35996111
PMCPMC9396779

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.