SynthesisESC heart failure2023
Meta-analysed numbers needed to treat of novel antidiabetic drugs for cardiovascular outcomes.
Synthesis in ESC heart failure, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for prevention of heart failure events in type 2 diabetes and/or obesity.ESC heart failure · 2026 · on this mapPooled it
- Incidence of acute myocardial infarction in people with diabetes compared to those without diabetes: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2026Pooled it
- Real-world effectiveness of targeted therapies in ATTR cardiomyopathy: A meta-analysis integrating population-based data.ESC heart failure · 2025Pooled it
- The potential of precision diabetology for type 2 diabetes treatment-evidence from a meta-regression for all-cause mortality from large cardiovascular outcome trials.Acta diabetologica · 2025Pooled it
- Absolute treatment effects of novel antidiabetic drugs on a composite renal outcome: meta-analysis of digitalized individual patient data.Journal of nephrology · 2024Pooled it
- Meta-analysed numbers needed to treat of novel antidiabetic drugs for cardiovascular outcomes.ESC heart failure · 2023Pooled it
- Time-constant absolute effect measures for time-to-event outcomes.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Global research trends on DPP-4 inhibitors and cardiovascular outcomes: a comprehensive bibliometric analysis.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2025Review
- Numbers Needed to Treat for Preventing Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes for Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors vs. Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 Inhibitors: The Hong Kong Diabetes Study.Cardiovascular drugs and therapy · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
aimsAbsolute treatment effects-i.e. numbers needed to treat (NNTs)-of novel antidiabetic drugs for cardiovascular outcomes have not been comprehensively evaluated. We aimed to perform a meta-analysis of digitalized individual patient outcomes to display and compare absolute treatment effects. METHODS AND
resultsIndividual patient time-to-event information from Kaplan-Meier plots of cardiovascular mortality (CM) and/or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) endpoints from cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) evaluating dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, and sodium glucose transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors vs. placebo were digitalized using WebPlotDigitizer 4.2 and the R code of Guyot et al.; Weibull regression models were generated, validated, and used to estimate NNT for individual trials; random-effects meta-analysis generated Meta-NNT with 95% confidence intervals. Sixteen CVOTs reported time-to-event information (14 in primary diabetes and 2 in primary heart failure populations). Thirteen studies including 96 860 patients were meta-analysed for CM: At the median follow-up of 30 months, Meta-NNTs were 178 (64 to ∞ to -223) for DPP-4 inhibitors, 261 (158 to 745) for GLP-1 receptor agonists, and 118 (68 to 435) for SGLT2 inhibitors. Ten studies including 96 128 patients were meta-analysed for HHF: At the median follow-up of 29 months, estimated Meta-NNTs were -644 (229 to ∞ to -134) for DPP-4 inhibitors, 441 (184 to ∞ to -1100) for GLP-1 receptor agonists, and 126 (91 to 208) for SGLT2 inhibitors. SGLT2 inhibitors were especially effective for HHF in primary heart failure populations [Meta-NNT 25 (19 to 39)] vs. primary diabetes populations [Meta-NNT 233 (167 to 385)] at 16 months of follow-up.
conclusionsWe found only modest treatment benefits of GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT2 inhibitors for CM and HHF in primary type 2 diabetes mellitus populations. In primary heart failure populations, SGLT2 inhibitor benefits were substantial and comparable in efficacy to established heart failure medication.
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What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.