Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36345608›Full record

ArticleTransfusion2023

Comparison of allocation strategies of convalescent plasma to reduce excess infections and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 in a US-like population.

Natalya Kostandova, Emmanuel Fulgence Drabo, Karine Yenokyan, Amy Wesolowski, Shaun Truelove, Evan M Bloch, Aaron A R Tobian, Ralph R Vassallo, Marjorie D Bravo, Arturo Casadevall and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Transfusion, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Natalya KostandovaDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6184-531X
Emmanuel Fulgence DraboDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7470-4391
Karine YenokyanDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6835-9405
Amy WesolowskiDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6320-3575
Shaun TrueloveDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0538-0607
Evan M BlochDivision of Transfusion Medicine, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8181-9517
Aaron A R TobianDivision of Transfusion Medicine, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0517-3766
Ralph R VassalloVitalant, Medical Affairs, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8754-047X
Marjorie D BravoVitalant, Medical Affairs, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3562-5556
Arturo CasadevallDepartment of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9402-9167
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9741-8109
Bryan LauDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Funding

Research in practice: translating infectious disease epidemiology RIP-TIDET32AI165369 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WILLIAM J MOSS · 2022 to 2026
$1.5M
NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI165369
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile the use of convalescent plasma (CP) in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been inconsistent, CP has the potential to reduce excess morbidity and mortality in future pandemics. Given constraints on CP supply, decisions surrounding the allocation of CP must be made. STUDY DESIGN AND

methodsUsing a discrete-time stochastic compartmental model, we simulated implementation of four potential allocation strategies: administering CP to individuals in early hospitalization with COVID-19; administering CP to individuals in outpatient settings; administering CP to hospitalized individuals and administering any remaining CP to outpatient individuals and administering CP in both settings while prioritizing outpatient individuals. We examined the final size of SARS-CoV-2 infections, peak and cumulative hospitalizations, and cumulative deaths under each of the allocation scenarios over a 180-day period. We compared the cost per weighted health benefit under each strategy.

resultsPrioritizing administration to patients in early hospitalization, with remaining plasma administered in outpatient settings, resulted in the highest reduction in mortality, averting on average 15% more COVID-19 deaths than administering to hospitalized individuals alone (95% CI [11%-18%]). Prioritizing administration to outpatients, with remaining plasma administered to hospitalized individuals, had the highest percentage of hospitalizations averted (22% [21%-23%] higher than administering to hospitalized individuals alone). DISCUSSION: Convalescent plasma allocation strategy should be determined by the relative priority of averting deaths, infections, or hospitalizations. Under conditions considered, mixed allocation strategies (allocating CP to both outpatient and hospitalized individuals) resulted in a larger percentage of infections and deaths averted than administering CP in a single setting.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2COVID-19 SerotherapyHumansPandemicsCOVID-19 convalescent plasmaFFP transfusion

Identifiers

PMID36345608
PMCPMC9878275

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.