Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36379191›Full record

ArticleComputers in biology and medicine2022

Persistent Laplacian projected Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 to become new dominating variants.

Jiahui Chen, Yuchi Qiu, Rui Wang, Guo-Wei Wei

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Computers in biology and medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Correlated clustering and projection for dimensionality reduction.Machine learning: science and technology · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. PERSISTENT DIRECTED FLAG LAPLACIAN.Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.) · 2025
    Article
  12. PERSISTENT INTERACTION TOPOLOGY IN DATA ANALYSIS.Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.) · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. PERSISTENT SHEAF LAPLACIANS.Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.) · 2025
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Mayer-Homology Learning Prediction of Protein-Ligand Binding Affinities.Journal of computational biophysics and chemistry · 2025
    Article
  18. Review
  19. Review
  20. Persistent Topological Laplacians-A Survey.Mathematics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article

2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Jiahui ChenDepartment of Mathematics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Yuchi QiuDepartment of Mathematics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Rui WangDepartment of Mathematics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Guo-Wei WeiDepartment of Mathematics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA; Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. Electronic address: weig@msu.edu.

Funding

AI-based platform for predicting emerging vaccine-escape variants and designing mutation-proof antibodiesR01AI164266 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA · PI Guowei Wei, YONG-HUI ZHENG · 2022 to 2026
$2.7M
Synergistic integration of topology and machine learning for the predictions of protein-ligand binding affinities and mutation impactsR01GM126189 · NIGMS · MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY · PI WEI, GUOWEI · 2018 to 2021
$1.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI164266NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM126189
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Due to its high transmissibility, Omicron BA.1 ousted the Delta variant to become a dominating variant in late 2021 and was replaced by more transmissible Omicron BA.2 in March 2022. An important question is which new variants will dominate in the future. Topology-based deep learning models have had tremendous success in forecasting emerging variants in the past. However, topology is insensitive to homotopic shape evolution in virus-human protein-protein binding, which is crucial to viral evolution and transmission. This challenge is tackled with persistent Laplacian, which is able to capture both the topological change and homotopic shape evolution of data. Persistent Laplacian-based deep learning models are developed to systematically evaluate variant infectivity. Our comparative analysis of Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.2.11, BA.2.12.1, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5 unveils that Omicron BA.2.11, BA.2.12.1, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5 are more contagious than BA.2. In particular, BA.4 and BA.5 are about 36% more infectious than BA.2 and are projected to become new dominant variants by natural selection. Moreover, the proposed models outperform the state-of-the-art methods on three major benchmark datasets for mutation-induced protein-protein binding free energy changes. Our key projection about BA4 and BA.5's dominance made on May 1, 2022 (see arXiv:2205.00532) became a reality in late June 2022.

Indexed as

BenchmarkingHumansMutationDeep learningEvolutionInfectivityPersistent LaplacianSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID36379191
PMCPMC10754203

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.