ArticleTropical medicine and infectious disease2023
Retrospective Modeling of the Omicron Epidemic in Shanghai, China: Exploring the Timing and Performance of Control Measures.
Article in Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-time dynamic prediction of HFMD transmission using SEIRQ-ARIMA hybrid model optimized by multi-stage ABC-GWO algorithm.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Public acceptance of COVID-19 control measures and associated factors during Omicron-dominant period in China: a cross-sectional survey.BMC public health · 2024Article
- An Explanation for Reports of Increased Prevalence of Olfactory Dysfunction With Omicron: Asymptomatic Infections.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Response Strategies for Emerging Infectious Diseases: More Efforts Are Needed.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Lessons drawn from Shanghai for controlling highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants: insights from a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Epi-DNNs: Epidemiological priors informed deep neural networks for modeling COVID-19 dynamics.Computers in biology and medicine · 2023Article
- The effectiveness of control measures during the 2022 COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai, China.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIn late February 2022, the Omicron epidemic swept through Shanghai, and the Shanghai government responded to it by adhering to a dynamic zero-COVID strategy. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai to explore the timing and performance of control measures based on the eventual size and duration of the outbreak.
methodsWe constructed an age-structured and vaccination-stratified SEPASHRD model by considering populations that had been detected or controlled before symptom onset. In addition, we retrospectively modeled the epidemic in Shanghai from 26 February 2022 to 31 May 2022 across four periods defined by events and interventions, on the basis of officially reported confirmed (58,084) and asymptomatic (591,346) cases.
resultsAccording to our model fitting, there were about 785,123 positive infections, of which about 57,585 positive infections were symptomatic infections. Our counterfactual assessment found that precise control by grid management was not so effective and that citywide static management was still needed. Universal and enforced control by citywide static management contained 87.65% and 96.29% of transmission opportunities, respectively. The number of daily new and cumulative infections could be significantly reduced if we implemented static management in advance. Moreover, if static management was implemented in the first 14 days of the epidemic, the number of daily new infections would be less than 10.
conclusionsThe above research suggests that dynamic zeroing can only be achieved when strict prevention and control measures are implemented as early as possible. In addition, a lot of preparation is still needed if China wants to change its strategy in the future.
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