MRI-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models accurately predict the post-treatment response of rectal adenocarcinoma to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

Objectives: To develop and validate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models for predicting the treatment response of local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). Methods: Between October 2017 and August 2022, 105 LARC NCRT-naïve patients were enrolled in this study. After careful evaluation, data for 84 patients that met the inclusion criteria were used to develop and validate the NCRT response models. All patients received NCRT, and the post-treatment response was evaluated by pathological assessment. We manual segmented the volume of tumors and 105 radiomics features were extracted from three-dimensional MRIs. Then, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm was implemented for evaluating and incorporating important tumor features. The predictive performance of MRI sequences and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for NCRT response were compared. Finally, the optimal pre-Radiomics and delta-Radiomics models were established respectively. The predictive performance of the radionics model was confirmed using 5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, leave-one-out validation, and independent validation. The predictive accuracy of the model was based on the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results: There was no significant difference in clinical factors between patients with good and poor reactions. Integrating different MRI modes and the SMOTE method improved the performance of the radiomics model. The pre-Radiomics model (train AUC: 0.93 ± 0.06; test AUC: 0.79) and delta-Radiomcis model (train AUC: 0.96 ± 0.03; test AUC: 0.83) all have high NCRT response prediction performance by LARC. Overall, the delta-Radiomics model was superior to the pre-Radiomics model. Conclusion: MRI-based pre-Radiomics model and delta-Radiomics model all have good potential to predict the post-treatment response of LARC to NCRT. Delta-Radiomics analysis has a huge potential for clinical application in facilitating the provision of personalized therapy.