High-risk population and factors of stroke has changed among middle-aged and elderly Chinese-Evidence from 1989 to 2015.

Background: Stroke is an acute cerebrovascular disease with high mortality and disability. This study aimed to investigate the trend of stroke prevalence from 1989 to 2015 in China, explore the transition of high-risk population and high-risk factors, and provide some evidence to develop more targeted stroke intervention strategies. Material and methods: We derived the baseline data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Participants responded to face-to-face interviews and examinations containing demographic information, behavioral health information, disease history, and physical examination. We applied chi-square test, shapley value decomposition model, and decision tree model to evaluate the changes of high-risk population and high-risk factors of stroke. Results: Across 42,419 middle-aged and elderly residents, the prevalence of stroke was decreasing from 1989 to 2015. Hypertension was the leading risk factor of stroke, while its contribution rate was weakened with the increasing of medicine taking rate. As the second risk factor of stroke, the contribution of age decreased either. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of historical health factors, lifestyle factors, and regional factors, such as body mass index, diabetes, and living area to the impact of stroke was increasing. In addition, the first high-risk population of stroke changed from hypertension patients aged 75 years and above to without spouse residents living in stroke belt such as Beijing and Liaoning. The second risk population of stroke transformed from male hypertensive patients under 75 years old into male hypertensive patients living in urban. The third high-risk group turned from the elderly aged 75 and above into the female patients with hypertension and diabetes. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the high-risk population and high-risk factors of stroke changed in China and revealed the direction and internal mechanism of transition of stroke. Targeted stroke intervention strategies should be renewed. Health education for the high-risk population of stroke should be carried out, healthy living habits need be advocated, and the use of antihypertensive drugs for the hypertensive patients should be standardized.