Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37019481›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2023

Factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica': the FORECAST longitudinal prognostic factor cohort study protocol.

Annina B Schmid, Lucy Ridgway, Louise Hailey, Mohamed Tachrount, Fay Probert, Kathryn R Martin, Whitney Scott, Geert Crombez, Christine Price, Claire Robinson and 8 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
0.7field-weighted citation impact, top 29% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 9 institutions in 5 countries.

Annina B SchmidNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK annina.schmid@neuro-research.ch.ORCID 0000-0001-7759-0211
Lucy RidgwayNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.ORCID 0009-0009-0242-701X
Louise HaileyNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Mohamed TachrountNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Fay ProbertDepartment of Chemistry, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Kathryn R MartinAcademic Primary Care, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1053-069X
Whitney ScottHealth Psychology Section, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2529-9083
Geert CrombezDepartment of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, University of Ghent, Gent, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-4744-8561
Christine PricePatient partner FORECAST study, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
Claire RobinsonPatient partner FORECAST study, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
Soraya KousheshNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Sarim AtherDepartment of Radiology, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Brigitte TampinDepartment of Physiotherapy, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8404-7847
Marco BarberoRehabilitation Research Laboratory 2rLab, Department of Business Economics Health and Social Care, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Manno, Ticino, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-8579-0686
Daniel NanzSwiss Center for Musculoskeletal Imaging, Balgrist Campus AG, Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-4128-5201
Stuart ClareNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Jeremy FairbankNuffield Department of Orthopaedics Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0050-874X
Georgios BaskozosNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9237-5878
University of Oxford · GBNuffield Orthopaedic Centre · GBGhent University · BEKing's College London · GBOsnabrück University · DEOxford University Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity of Aberdeen · GBUniversity of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland · CHUniversity of Zurich · CH

Funding

Department of HealthDiabetes UK 19/0005984Medical Research Council MR/W002388/1Medical Research Council MR/W027003/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionSciatica is a common condition and is associated with higher levels of pain, disability, poorer quality of life, and increased use of health resources compared with low back pain alone. Although many patients recover, a third develop persistent sciatica symptoms. It remains unclear, why some patients develop persistent sciatica as none of the traditionally considered clinical parameters (eg, symptom severity, routine MRI) are consistent prognostic factors.The FORECAST study (factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica') will take a different approach by exploring mechanism-based subgroups in patients with sciatica and investigate whether a mechanism-based approach can identify factors that predict pain persistence in patients with sciatica. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a prospective longitudinal cohort study including 180 people with acute/subacute sciatica. N=168 healthy participants will provide normative data. A detailed set of variables will be assessed within 3 months after sciatica onset. This will include self-reported sensory and psychosocial profiles, quantitative sensory testing, blood inflammatory markers and advanced neuroimaging. We will determine outcome with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index and a Numerical Pain Rating Scale for leg pain severity at 3 and 12 months.We will use principal component analysis followed by clustering methods to identify subgroups. Univariate associations and machine learning methods optimised for high dimensional small data sets will be used to identify the most powerful predictors and model selection/accuracy.The results will provide crucial information about the pathophysiological drivers of sciatica symptoms and may identify prognostic factors of pain persistence. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The FORECAST study has received ethical approval (South Central Oxford C, 18/SC/0263). The dissemination strategy will be guided by our patient and public engagement activities and will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, social media and podcasts. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18170726; Pre-results.

Indexed as

Low Back PainSciaticaCohort StudiesHumansLongitudinal StudiesPrognosisProspective StudiesQuality of LifeChronic PainNeurological injuryNeurological painNeurologyRehabilitation medicineRheumatology

Identifiers

PMID37019481
PMCPMC10111910
OpenAlexW4362606504

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.