ArticleGeoHealth2023
Patterns of West Nile Virus in the Northeastern United States Using Negative Binomial and Mechanistic Trait-Based Models.
Article in GeoHealth, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States.Biology letters · 2026Article
- Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.iScience · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Patterns of West Nile Virus in the Northeastern United States Using Negative Binomial and Mechanistic Trait-Based Models.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) primarily infects birds and mosquitoes but has also caused over 2,000 human deaths, and >50,000 reported human cases in the United States. Expected numbers of WNV neuroinvasive cases for the present were described for the Northeastern United States, using a negative binomial model. Changes in temperature-based suitability for WNV due to climate change were examined for the next decade using a temperature-trait model. WNV suitability was generally expected to increase over the next decade due to changes in temperature, but the changes in suitability were generally small. Many, but not all, populous counties in the northeast are already near peak suitability. Several years in a row of low case numbers is consistent with a negative binomial, and should not be interpreted as a change in disease dynamics. Public health budgets need to be prepared for the expected infrequent years with higher-than-average cases. Low-population counties that have not yet had a case are expected to have similar probabilities of having a new case as nearby low-population counties with cases, as these absences are consistent with a single statistical distribution and random chance.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.