ArticlePloS one2023
Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Effect of visceral fat on onset of metabolic syndrome.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Risk prediction score and equation for progression of arterial stiffness using Japanese longitudinal health examination data.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundPredicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) is important for identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease individuals and providing preventive interventions. We aimed to develop and validate an equation and a simple MetS score according to the Japanese MetS criteria.
methodsIn total, 54,198 participants (age, 54.5±10.1 years; men, 46.0%), with baseline and 5-year follow-up data were randomly assigned to 'Derivation' and 'Validation' cohorts (ratio: 2:1). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed in derivation cohort and scores were assigned to factors corresponding to β-coefficients. We evaluated predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC), then applied them to validation cohort to assess reproducibility.
resultsThe primary model ranged 0-27 points had an AUC of 0.81 (sensitivity: 0.81, specificity: 0.81, cut-off score: 14), and consisted of age, sex, blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), serum lipids, glucose measurements, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The simplified model (excluding blood tests) ranged 0-17 points with an AUC of 0.78 (sensitivity: 0.83, specificity: 0.77, cut-off score: 15) and included: age, sex, systolic BP, diastolic BP, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. We classified individuals with a score <15 and ≥15 points as low- and high-risk MetS, respectively. Furthermore, the equation model generated an AUC of 0.85 (sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.55). Analysis of the validation and derivation cohorts yielded similar results.
conclusionWe developed a primary score, an equation model, and a simple score. The simple score is convenient, well-validated with acceptable discrimination, and could be used for early detection of MetS in high-risk individuals.
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