ArticlePloS one2023
Better null models for assessing predictive accuracy of disease models.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Basic Baseline model design choices can substantially influence performance in collaborative forecast hubs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- The use of environmental data in descriptive and predictive models of vector-borne disease in North America.Journal of medical entomology · 2024Review
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2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Null models provide a critical baseline for the evaluation of predictive disease models. Many studies consider only the grand mean null model (i.e. R2) when evaluating the predictive ability of a model, which is insufficient to convey the predictive power of a model. We evaluated ten null models for human cases of West Nile virus (WNV), a zoonotic mosquito-borne disease introduced to the United States in 1999. The Negative Binomial, Historical (i.e. using previous cases to predict future cases) and Always Absent null models were the strongest overall, and the majority of null models significantly outperformed the grand mean. The length of the training timeseries increased the performance of most null models in US counties where WNV cases were frequent, but improvements were similar for most null models, so relative scores remained unchanged. We argue that a combination of null models is needed to evaluate the forecasting performance of predictive models for infectious diseases and the grand mean is the lowest bar.
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Registered trials
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