ArticlePloS one2023
The effectiveness of control measures during the 2022 COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai, China.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- A Review and Future Directions for Global Public Health Security Assessment Tools.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Effectiveness of orthokeratology in myopia control during COVID-19 home confinement in Shanghai: a retrospective study.BMC ophthalmology · 2025Article
- Clinical Characteristics of Patients With Respiratory Infections After Nonpharmacological Interventions for COVID-19 in China Have Ended: Using Machine Learning Approaches to Support Pathogen Prediction at Admission.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2025Article
- The ongoing impact of policy documents on the pandemic based on the framework of the "4Rs" theory and policy tools: in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIn March 2022, the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly in Shanghai, China. The city adopted strict non-pharmacological intervention (NPI) measures, including lockdown (implemented on March 28 in Pudong and April 1 in Puxi) and blanket PCR testing (April 4). This study aims to understand the effect of these measures.
methodsWe tabulated daily case counts from official reports and fitted a two-patch stochastic SEIR model to the data for the period of March 19 to April 21. This model considered two regions in Shanghai, namely Pudong and Puxi, as the implementation of control measures in Shanghai was carried out on different dates in these regions. We verified our fitting results using the data from April 22 to June 26. Finally, we applied the point estimate of parameter values to simulate our model while varying the dates of control measure implementation, and studied the effectiveness of the control measures.
resultsOur point estimate for the parameter values yields expected case counts that agree well the data for both the periods from March 19 to April 21 and from April 22 to June 26. Lockdown did not significantly reduce the intra-region transmission rates. Only about 21% cases were reported. The underlying basic reproduction number R0 was 1.7, and the control reproduction number with both lockdown and blanket PCR testing was 1.3. If both measures were implemented on March 19, only about 5.9% infections would be prevented.
conclusionsThrough our analysis, we found that NPI measures implemented in Shanghai were not sufficient to reduce the reproduction number to below unity. Thus, earlier intervention only has limited effect on reducing cases. The outbreak dies out because of only 27% of the population were active in disease transmission, possibly due to a combination of vaccination and lockdown.
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