Widening mismatch between UK seafood production and consumer demand: a 120-year perspective.

Developed countries are increasingly dependent on international trade to meet seafood requirements, which has important social, environmental, and economic implications. After becoming an independent coastal state following Brexit, the UK faces increased trade barriers and changes in seafood availability and cost. We compiled a long-term (120-year) dataset of UK seafood production (landings and aquaculture), imports, and exports, and assessed the influence of policy change and consumer preference on domestic production and consumption. In the early twentieth century, distant-water fisheries met an increasing demand for large, flaky fish such as cod and haddock that are more abundant in northerly waters. Accordingly, from 1900 to 1975, the UK fleet supplied almost 90% of these fish. However, policy changes in the mid-1970s such as the widespread establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones and the UK joining the European Union resulted in large declines in distant-water fisheries and a growing mismatch between seafood production versus consumption in the UK. While in 1975, UK landings and aquaculture accounted for 89% of seafood consumed by the British public, by 2019 this was only 40%. The combination of policy changes and staunch consumer preferences for non-local species has resulted in today's situation, where the vast majority of seafood consumed in the UK is imported, and most seafood produced domestically is exported. There are also health considerations. The UK public currently consumes 31% less seafood than is recommended by government guidelines, and even if local species were more popular, total domestic production would still be 73% below recommended levels. In the face of climate change, global overfishing and potentially restrictive trade barriers, promoting locally sourced seafood and non-seafood alternatives would be prudent to help meet national food security demands, and health and environmental targets.. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-023-09776-5.