ArticlePLoS computational biology2023
Sequential mutations in exponentially growing populations.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A guide to understanding tumour evolution through the lens of population genetics.Nature reviews. Cancer · 2026Review
- Selective sweep probabilities in spatially expanding populations.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Bayesian inference of fitness landscapes via tree-structured branching processes.Bioinformatics (Oxford, England) · 2025Article
- Accumulation of Oncogenic Mutations During Progression from Healthy Tissue to Cancer.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Error-induced extinction in a multi-type critical birth-death process.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Stochastic models of sequential mutation acquisition are widely used to quantify cancer and bacterial evolution. Across manifold scenarios, recurrent research questions are: how many cells are there with n alterations, and how long will it take for these cells to appear. For exponentially growing populations, these questions have been tackled only in special cases so far. Here, within a multitype branching process framework, we consider a general mutational path where mutations may be advantageous, neutral or deleterious. In the biologically relevant limiting regimes of large times and small mutation rates, we derive probability distributions for the number, and arrival time, of cells with n mutations. Surprisingly, the two quantities respectively follow Mittag-Leffler and logistic distributions regardless of n or the mutations' selective effects. Our results provide a rapid method to assess how altering the fundamental division, death, and mutation rates impacts the arrival time, and number, of mutant cells. We highlight consequences for mutation rate inference in fluctuation assays.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.