Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37430193›Full record

ArticleBMC geriatrics2023

XGBoost-based machine learning test improves the accuracy of hemorrhage prediction among geriatric patients with long-term administration of rivaroxaban.

Cheng Chen, Chun Yin, Yanhu Wang, Jing Zeng, Shuili Wang, Yurong Bao, Yixuan Xu, Tongbo Liu, Jiao Fan, Xian Liu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC geriatrics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.8field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Cheng Chen *The Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Chun Yin *Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, the 902Nd Hospital of PLA Joint Service Support Force, Bengbu, 233015, China.
Yanhu Wang *The Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Jing ZengThe Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Shuili WangDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, the 902Nd Hospital of PLA Joint Service Support Force, Bengbu, 233015, China.
Yurong BaoThe Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Yixuan XuThe Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Tongbo LiuDepartment of Information, Medical Supplies Center, PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, China. liutong_bo@163.com.
Jiao FanThe Second Medical Center &, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China. fanjiao@301hospital.com.cn.
Xian LiuDepartment of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Beijing Institute of Radiation Medicine, Beijing, 100850, People's Republic of China. 1539247436@qq.com.
Chinese PLA General Hospital · CNPeople's Liberation Army 401 Hospital · CNSecond Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHemorrhage is a potential and serious adverse drug reaction, especially for geriatric patients with long-term administration of rivaroxaban. It is essential to establish an effective model for predicting bleeding events, which could improve the safety of rivaroxaban use in clinical practice.

methodsThe hemorrhage information of 798 geriatric patients (over the age of 70 years) who needed long-term administration of rivaroxaban for anticoagulation therapy was constantly tracked and recorded through a well-established clinical follow-up system. Relying on the 27 collected clinical indicators of these patients, conventional logistic regression analysis, random forest and XGBoost-based machine learning approaches were applied to analyze the hemorrhagic risk factors and establish the corresponding prediction models. Furthermore, the performance of the models was tested and compared by the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

resultsA total of 112 patients (14.0%) had bleeding adverse events after treatment with rivaroxaban for more than 3 months. Among them, 96 patients had gastrointestinal and intracranial hemorrhage during treatment, which accounted for 83.18% of the total hemorrhagic events. The logistic regression, random forest and XGBoost models were established with AUCs of 0.679, 0.672 and 0.776, respectively. The XGBoost model showed the best predictive performance in terms of discrimination, accuracy and calibration among all the models.

conclusionAn XGBoost-based model with good discrimination and accuracy was built to predict the hemorrhage risk of rivaroxaban, which will facilitate individualized treatment for geriatric patients.

Indexed as

HemorrhageRivaroxabanAgedHumansIntracranial HemorrhagesLong-Term CareMachine LearningRivaroxabanDirect oral anticoagulantsHemorrhageRisk factor analysisRivaroxabanXGBoost

Identifiers

PMID37430193
PMCPMC10332061
OpenAlexW4383724562

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.