Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37529570›Full record

ArticleJournal of applied statistics2023

On regime changes of COVID-19 outbreak.

A Tchorbadjieff, L P Tomov, V Velev, G Dezhov, V Manev, P Mayster

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of applied statistics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

A TchorbadjieffInstitute of Mathematics and Informatics Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9322-262X
L P TomovDepartment of Informatics, New Bulgarian University, Sofia, Bulgaria.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1902-6473
V VelevDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Parasitology and Tropical Medicine, Medical University of Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0161-6993
G DezhovFaculty of Mathematics and Informatics at Sofia University, Sofia, Bulgaria.
V ManevFakultät für Mathematik und Informatik, Ruprecht-Karls University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
P MaysterInstitute of Mathematics and Informatics Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a very serious impact on societies and caused large-scale economic changes and death toll worldwide. The first cases were detected in China, but soon the virus spread quickly worldwide and the intensity of newly reported infections grew high during this initial period almost everywhere. Later, despite all imposed measures, the intensity shifted abruptly multiple times during the two-year period between 2020 and 2022 causing waves of too high infection rates in almost every part of the world. To target this problem, we assume the data heterogeneity as multiple consecutive regime changes. The research study includes the development of a model based on automatic regime change detection and their combination with the linear birth-death process for long-run data fits. The results are empirically verified on data for 38 countries and US states for the period from February 2020 to April 2022. Finally, the initial phase (conditions) properties of infection development are studied.

Indexed as

60J8560M2062-07change point analysisCOVID-19linear birth–death processesstatistical inference for branching processes

Identifiers

PMID37529570
PMCPMC10388815

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.