The trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions over 25 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

backgroundHigh blood pressure is a key pathogenetic factor that contributes to the deterioration of kidney function. However, the incidence trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied; therefore, we aimed to analyze the global, regional, and national patterns, temporal trends as well as burden of hypertension-related CKD.

methodsWe extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD.

resultsIn 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.

conclusionsBetween 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.