Evidence mapPaperPMID 37575467Full record

ArticleProceedings of machine learning research2023

Causal isotonic calibration for heterogeneous treatment effects.

Lars van der Laan, Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez, Marco Carone, Alex Luedtke

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of machine learning research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Calibrated and Conformal Propensity Scores for Causal Effect Estimation.Uncertainty in artificial intelligence : proceedings of the ... conference. Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Lars van der LaanDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, USA.
Ernesto Ulloa-PérezDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, USA.
Marco CaroneDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Washington, USA.
Alex LuedtkeDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, USA.

Funding

NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL137808NLM NIH HHS DP2 LM013340
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. In addition, we introduce a novel data-efficient variant of calibration that avoids the need for hold-out calibration sets, which we refer to as cross-calibration. Causal isotonic cross-calibration takes cross-fitted predictors and outputs a single calibrated predictor obtained using all available data. We establish under weak conditions that causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration both achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates so long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated well in an appropriate sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm to provide strong distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Identifiers

PMID37575467
PMCPMC10416780

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.