ArticleThe European respiratory journal2023
From pre-COPD to COPD: a Simple, Low cost and easy to IMplement (SLIM) risk calculator.
Article in The European respiratory journal, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incidence and Risk Factors for Progression from Pre-COPD to COPD: A Systematic Review and Meta‑analysis.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Pooled it
- Definitions of early COPD and predictors for disease progression: a systematic review.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026Pooled it
- Proteo-metabolomic insights into the progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung function decline.Respiratory research · 2026Article
- Unfolding Immune Dysregulation in COPD: Identification of a Three-Gene Signature and Functional Validation ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2026Article
- Pre-COPD: Impact on prevention, detection, and treatment.Presse medicale (Paris, France : 1983) · 2026Review
- New approaches to uncover COPD pathobiology and develop therapies.JCI insight · 2026Review
- Small Airway Disease in Pre-COPD and Early COPD: Insights Into the Pulmonary "Silent Zone".International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Review
- Prevalence and associated factors for COPD and pre-COPD in Guizhou Province, China: A cross-sectional study.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Effective determination of pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by symptoms and CT features: a multicenter cross-sectional study.Journal of thoracic disease · 2025Article
- Oscillometry-defined Small Airway Dysfunction in Tobacco-exposed Adults with Impaired or Preserved Airflow.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2025Article
- Towards early detection and disease interception of COPD across the lifespan.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025Review
- Definitions of early COPD and markers and tools for predicting progression: a systematic review protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Optimal spirometry thresholds for the prediction of chronic airflow obstruction: a multinational longitudinal study.ERJ open research · 2025Article
- Relationship between lung function impairment, clinical characteristics and systemic inflammation based on a large-scale population screening.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Chronic Airflow Limitation, Lower Respiratory Symptoms, COPD and Chronic Rhinosinusitis in a Middle-Aged Population: The Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS). A Link Between the Lower and Upper Airways.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2025Article
- Mendelian Randomization Evidence for Relationship and Mediation of Educational Attainment on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2025Article
- Factors associated with undiagnosed COPD in patients hospitalised for severe COPD exacerbation.BMJ open respiratory research · 2024Article
- Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A 6-Month Follow-Up Study.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- To Our Knowledge, You Are Not the First….American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2024Article
- Reply to Divo and Celli: To Our Knowledge, You Are Not the First….American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe lifetime risk of developing clinical COPD among smokers ranges from 13% to 22%. Identifying at-risk individuals who will develop overt disease in a reasonable timeframe may allow for early intervention. We hypothesised that readily available clinical and physiological variables could help identify ever-smokers at higher risk of developing chronic airflow limitation (CAL).
methodsAmong 2273 Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (LSC) participants, we included 677 (mean age 54 years) with normal spirometry at baseline and a minimum of three spirometries, each 1 year apart. Repeated spirometric measurements were used to determine incident CAL. Using logistic regression, demographics, anthropometrics, smoking history, modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire, comorbidities and spirometry, we related variables obtained at baseline to incident CAL as defined by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease and lower limit of normal criteria. The predictive model derived from the LSC was validated in subjects from the COPDGene study.
resultsOver 6.3 years, the incidence of CAL was 26 cases per 1000 person-years. The strongest independent predictors were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV
conclusionIn middle-aged ever-smokers, a simple predictive model with FEV
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.