Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37712675›Full record

ArticleEuropace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology2023

Optimizing patient selection for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation: utilizing multimodal machine learning to assess risk of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator non-benefit.

Maarten Z H Kolk, Samuel Ruipérez-Campillo, Brototo Deb, Erik J Bekkers, Cornelis P Allaart, Albert J Rogers, Anne-Lotte C J Van Der Lingen, Laura Alvarez Florez, Ivana Isgum, Bob D De Vos and 5 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Atrial fibrillation and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator in non-ischaemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: insights from the DANISH trial.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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  10. A heart job: predicting sudden cardiac arrest.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
  11. State of the Art of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Electrophysiology in 2025: A Scientific Statement of the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the ESC, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), and the ESC Working Group on E-Cardiology.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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  14. Mortality and use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with low ejection fraction following non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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  18. Incorporating machine learning into the decision-making process regarding implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treatment.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Maarten Z H KolkDepartment of Cardiology, Heart Center, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-0624-1510
Samuel Ruipérez-CampilloDepartment of Medicine and Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 780 Welch Road, MC 5773, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5425-4175
Brototo DebDepartment of Medicine and Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 780 Welch Road, MC 5773, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8800-0002
Erik J BekkersFaculty of Science, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-4418-2160
Cornelis P AllaartDepartment of Cardiology, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Albert J RogersDepartment of Medicine and Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 780 Welch Road, MC 5773, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6585-534X
Anne-Lotte C J Van Der LingenDepartment of Cardiology, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2791-9124
Laura Alvarez FlorezDepartment of Cardiology, Heart Center, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-4814-1374
Ivana IsgumFaculty of Science, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1869-5034
Bob D De VosDepartment of Biomedical Engineering and Physics, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-8358-6849
Paul CloptonDepartment of Medicine and Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 780 Welch Road, MC 5773, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0642-0861
Arthur A M WildeDepartment of Cardiology, Heart Center, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0528-0852
Reinoud E KnopsDepartment of Cardiology, Heart Center, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0772-3573
Sanjiv M NarayanDepartment of Medicine and Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 780 Welch Road, MC 5773, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7552-5053
Fleur V Y TjongDepartment of Cardiology, Heart Center, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-9608-0081

Funding

Machine Learning for Ventricular ArrhythmiasR01HL162260 · NHLBI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Sanjiv M Narayan · 2023 to 2026
$2.5M
Electrical Mapping Signatures of Adverse Structural and Functional Remodeling in Ventricular ArrhythmiaK23HL166977 · NHLBI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Albert Joseph Rogers · 2023 to 2026
$680k
NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL166977NHLBI NIH HHS L30 HL143631NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL162260
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsLeft ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is suboptimal as a sole marker for predicting sudden cardiac death (SCD). Machine learning (ML) provides new opportunities for personalized predictions using complex, multimodal data. This study aimed to determine if risk stratification for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation can be improved by ML models that combine clinical variables with 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG) time-series features. METHODS AND

resultsA multicentre study of 1010 patients (64.9 ± 10.8 years, 26.8% female) with ischaemic, dilated, or non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy, and LVEF ≤ 35% implanted with an ICD between 2007 and 2021 for primary prevention of SCD in two academic hospitals was performed. For each patient, a raw 12-lead, 10-s ECG was obtained within 90 days before ICD implantation, and clinical details were collected. Supervised ML models were trained and validated on a development cohort (n = 550) from Hospital A to predict ICD non-arrhythmic mortality at three-year follow-up (i.e. mortality without prior appropriate ICD-therapy). Model performance was evaluated on an external patient cohort from Hospital B (n = 460). At three-year follow-up, 16.0% of patients had died, with 72.8% meeting criteria for non-arrhythmic mortality. Extreme gradient boosting models identified patients with non-arrhythmic mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.90 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.00] during internal validation. In the external cohort, the AUROC was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84).

conclusionsML models combining ECG time-series features and clinical variables were able to predict non-arrhythmic mortality within three years after device implantation in a primary prevention population, with robust performance in an independent cohort.

Indexed as

Defibrillators, ImplantableDeath, Sudden, CardiacFemaleHumansMachine LearningMalePatient SelectionPrimary PreventionStroke VolumeVentricular Function, LeftArtificial intelligenceImplantable cardioverter-defibrillatorMachine learningVentricular arrhythmia

Identifiers

PMID37712675
PMCPMC10516624

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.