Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38125915›Full record

ArticleChina CDC weekly2023

Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics - China, 2022-2023.

Zhanwei Du, Zengyang Shao, Xiao Zhang, Ruohan Chen, Tianmu Chen, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Eric H Y Lau, Benjamin J Cowling

Open access · diamondAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in China CDC weekly, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
3.2field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 15 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. Respiratory pathogenic microbial infections: a narrative review.International journal of medical sciences · 2024
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Zhanwei DuWHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Zengyang ShaoLaboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Xiao ZhangLaboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Ruohan ChenLaboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Tianmu ChenState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
Yuan BaiWHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Lin WangDepartment of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Eric H Y LauInstitute for Health Transformation & School of Health & Social Development, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia.
Benjamin J CowlingWHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation · CNLaboratory of Data Discovery for HealthDeakin University · AUUniversity of Cambridge · GBXiamen University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023, causing a large number of hospitalizations. While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023. Methods: Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness (ILI) data for northern and southern regions of China, we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this trained model, we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023. Results: We estimated the effective reproduction number Conclusions: The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.

Indexed as

ChinaForecastingInfluenza

Identifiers

PMID38125915
PMCPMC10728554
OpenAlexW4389500554

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-SA
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.