Baseline and usual triglyceride-glucose index and the risk of chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study.

Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an emerging marker of adverse cardiometabolic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. The long-term relevance of TyG index to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of TyG index with CKD risk and its utility in risk prediction in a prospective study. The TyG index was calculated using fasting triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels measured in 2362 men aged 42-61 years with normal kidney function using the formula: Ln (fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] × FPG [mg/dL]/2). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals, CIs) were estimated for CKD. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements of triglycerides and FPG taken 11 years after baseline. Over a median follow-up duration of 17.5 years, 223 CKD cases were recorded. The age-adjusted regression dilution ratio for the TyG index was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.48-0.60). The risk of CKD increased continuously with increasing TyG index across the range 9.3 to 11.6 (p value for nonlinearity<.001). In analysis adjusted for established risk factors, a unit higher TyG index was associated with an increased risk of CKD (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.24-2.05). Comparing extreme tertiles of the TyG index, the corresponding adjusted HR (95% CI) for CKD was 1.61 (1.15-2.27). Addition of the TyG index to a CKD risk prediction model containing established risk factors improved risk discrimination and reclassification (p value for difference in -2 log likelihood<.001; NRI=47.66%, p=.014; IDI=0.0164, p<.001). Higher TyG index is associated with an increased risk of CKD and improves the prediction and classification of CKD beyond established risk factors. Using single baseline estimations of the TyG index to investigate its association with CKD risk could considerably under-estimate the true association.